2020 Publishing Predictions
by Laurie McLean, Co-founder of Fuse Literary Agency
Hello again, everyone. I love creating this look-ahead in publishing each year. It makes me pick my head up and take a longer view of the industry than my normal routine of concentrating on the picayune changes in publishing contracts, the art of selling books from my amazing clients, and otherwise doing the daily grind that is agenting.
You’re going to see that my 2020 publishing predictions are very similar to my predictions for 2019. That’s because outside pressures are forcing publishers to look inward at their bottom line profitability and not take many risks. So that makes for a pretty steady picture of growth. Until the next unforeseen blockbuster hits and they all scramble for more of “that”.
Anyway, enjoy these predictions. All opinions are my own and I’d love to hear your thoughts about them as comments.
Audiobook sales will continue to experience record growth.
Audiobook sales rocketed in 2019. And they look set to achieve another record year as the sector continues to attract first-time listeners. (Millennials and seniors do love to listen to books). I believe this trend will continue in 2020.
Also, as I predicted last year, nearly all Big Five publishers and most of the medium-sized ones have now brought audiobook production in-house and demand audio rights in their publishing contracts. This will solidify more over the coming years.
Diversity will continue to grow as well.
#Ownvoices books by marginalized authors continues to grow in an almost limitless fashion. Fueled by the success in sales and awards by ethnic authors we’ve not heard from in the past, I don’t see this abating any time soon.
There was also a concerted effort to hire marginalized employees by the publishing industry, both in the US and abroad, further fueling this Renaissance in #ownvoices literature.
Bestsellers will continue to dominate the charts.
James Patterson. Lee Child. Rick Riordan. Margaret Atwood. The Hollywood “tent pole” philosophy of book buying and marketing also ramped up from its already solid pace of the prior decades. Call this a risk-aversion philosophy by publishing execs, or a tried-and-true process in the uneasy times of tariffs and Brexit worries.
Anecdotally, most of the deals we’ve made at Fuse this year have been relatively straightforward for our bestsellers and like pulling teeth for the debut authors.
Midlist authors continue to be abandoned to self-publishing and ebooks. There doesn’t seem to be much of a commitment to growing authors who do not hit it big right out of the gate. But some editors do continue to support midlisters who haven’t quite popped in sales like they thought they would.
Debut authors still breakout from time to time.
This is hopeful news for all you unpublished authors out there. During 2019 we continued to see a handful of debut authors make the bestseller lists. But it really is about the same as all the years before. And it’s why publishers continue to buy books from debut authors…on the off chance that book will be “the one.”
This will continue for 2020 and beyond. It’s the complement to the tent pole bestseller strategy and it seems to work.
Brexit, Trump and China tariffs, oh my!
One of the reasons it seems as if publishing has hunkered down over the past year is that outside pressures are causing them to be extremely cautious with their bottom line.
First, the breaking away from the European Union by the United Kingdom via Brexit has caused all kinds of problems for multinational corporations (which encompasses all the Big Five and many other publishers). VATs and the complicated specifics of distribution within foreign territories that used to be simple are causing publishing sales teams to work overtime.
Then add on the tariffs against Canadian paper pushing prices upwards at an alarming rate as well as tariffs on books printed in China.
Worse than these individual pressures on publishing, is the sense that there is no game plan and at any time more expenses could be piled on their products. China is threatening even more retaliation. And an ever-increasing trade war with other countries looms. No wonder publishers are constantly vigilant to their expenses and profits—more so than usual.
Self-Publishing is Settling Down.
In 2008, the explosion of self-published ebooks rocked the publishing landscape. First time authors were steadily making six-figures of income a year. And more. Several became millionaires. And while the vast majority of self-published authors were only selling 100 copies or so a year, the phenomenon changed the way traditional publishing looked at their industry.
Fast forward to a decade or so later and it seems that indie sales have settled into a nice groove, but certainly nothing like they were from 2008 to 2015. Some of it could be that authors simply could not keep up the frenetic pace (writing 4-5 books a year) that they published at in the early KDP years. And readers found that downloading free or 99 cent ebooks filled up their Kindles and Kobos to the point where they slowed down too.
Other challenges were the “authors” who spent more time gaming the algorithms than they did writing, thus making legitimate writers suffer. And plagiarism continues to plague honest authors. But self-publishing still beats no self-publishing and it will continue to thrive.
So those are my predictions. We’ll see how Brexit, tariffs, and other geopolitical factors affect the publishing industry in the coming year.
by Laurie McLean (@agentsavant) January 5th, 2020
What about you, scriveners? What would you like to see change in publishing in 2020? Do you have any 2020 publishing predictions? Any questions for Laurie?
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LAURIE MCLEAN: Following her stint as the CEO of a successful Silicon Valley public relations agency bearing her name, Laurie was able to switch gears in 2002 to immerse herself in writing. She penned three manuscripts before deciding that the life of a literary agent was her destiny. Laurie has been writing professionally since high school–first as a journalist, then as a public relations agent, finally as a novelist. She earned a Bachelor’s Degree in Journalism from the State University of New York and a Master’s Degree at Syracuse University’s prestigious Newhouse School of Journalism.
At Fuse Literary, Laurie specializes in middle grade, young adult, and adult genre fiction (romance, fantasy, science fiction, mystery, thrillers, suspense, horror, etc.). She does not handle non-fiction, or commercial, literary or women’s fiction, nor does she handle children’s picture books or graphic novels.
Laurie’s clients include the New York Times and international bestselling YA author Julie Kagawa, epic fantasy bestseller Brian D. Anderson, award-winning steampunk and fantasy author Pip Ballantine, and the award-winning Linda Wisdom, who has had more than 100 romance novels published in her career.
Laurie is also the Director of the San Francisco Writers Conference, held every President’s Day weekend. And she co-founded two ePublishing companies with two of her client partners: Joyride Books for vintage out-of-print romance books with Linda Wisdom; and Ambush Books for out-of-print classic tween and teen books with Douglas Rees (which was sold to Fuse Literary’s Short Fuse Publishing).
She is closed to submissions at this time.
For more on Laurie, check out her blog at agentsavant.com, follow her on Twitter @agentsavant, and visit her Facebook page at Facebook.com/laurie.mclean.
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featured image by Adrian Paine, licensed through Wikimedia Commons
Hope audio books continue to grow. My royalties for audio were actually lowest last year, but then, I need to turn in another manuscript to my publisher and soon.
I know I downloaded a lot of cheap and free books in the beginning. I’m much more picky now.
I’m much pickier now also. And I’ve removed some I know I’ll never read.
I did want to post an update to the section about the tariff on books printed in China. With the most recent trade negotiations between China and the U.S. seeming to bear fruit, the Trump administration has put a hold on the 25% tariffs on Chinese-printed books. So for now, that is not putting even more pressure on publishing. Note: Most publishers in the U.S. print their books in the U.S.
Laurie–Thanks for the update!
Thanks, Laurie.
How committed was the UK to the EU? Their currency never changed. It’ll be interesting to see how 2020 shakes out when Brexit finally happens.
With the paper tariff issues, monitoring prices of self-published books could be a crucial ongoing task for writers.
The Euro is not the main part of the EU and all the newest members have not (may never) adopt it. I don’t think Brexit will affect publishing much if any at all. Other areas such as much may be much more affected as freedom of travel from and to the UK is curtailed.
Publishing in the UK is going ape about paying VAT for books that they didn’t have to before. And the distribution piece of books from UK publishers to European bookstores is also up in the air. It is a big problem.
Laurie & Anne,
I always look forward to these predictions. And from my little spot on the planet, these ring pretty darned true. Thanks again to both of you.
Onward & upward!
Laurie—Thanks for your predictions! Yes, more of “that.” Whatever “that” turns out to be. Now, if we could only predict “that.” 😉
Great brave stuff to make such predictions, Laurie, thank you.
I’m very drawn to your first ones, for reasons I cannot seem to put my finger on… but a-book growth would be terrific news I’m sure. I wonder if the Big 5 are locking down narrators as well as the rights?
Good question about the narrators, Will. I do not think narrators will lock themselves up with a particular publisher per se. But definitely with specific authors, who tend to stay with publishers for series that sell well and beyond. I have a lot of fantasy authors as clients and their series start as trilogies and, if successful, go longer. They want the same narrator for all their books, so that narrator would be locked up, in effect, for a few years with that author/publisher. But you raise an interesting question and I’ll now keep an eye on it to see how it develops.
Thank you, Laurie. I always look forward to this each year.
Thank you, Patricia.
Still a difficult world for solid mid-list authors with steady audiences, and yet, if we only publish major bestsellers, there wouldn’t be many books to read in each genre. Thanks for this post, Laurie!
Yes, some of my older clients opine for the good old days when editors kept buying their books even if the first two or three did not earn out. Today, even a multi-book contract can see subsequent books cancelled if the first one doesn’t pop. Very distressing.
Laurie, those are fair predictions. I went to the Frankfurt Book Fair in October and sat in on the Storytel Presentation. Their book subscription model has taken off in Europe especially Norway, Sweden, and Finland. I believe the book subscription model will have a bigger place in 2020 and beyond.
I’m watching that closely myself, Marion. For my clients. So far Kindle Unlimited is doing well. I hope it will grow.
Thank you for your predictions, Laurie. You mentioned ethnic authors when you spoke of #OwnVoice books and was wondering if you thought this also included authors with other diversities–such as disabilities. Looking forward to your reply.
Happy new year all.
Thanks for the predictions. I’m wondering where mid-range publishers fit into the picture?
I’m sorry. I’m not sure what mid-range publishers are. Do you mean regional and university presses? Or other small presses? If you do, these publishers are a lot more wide-ranging than the Big 5 publishers in New York.
Yes, pretty much any that aren’t one of the big 5.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts and insight with us Laurie. I’m on board with many same thoughts. 🙂
You are a smart woman, LOL.
#OwnVoices acquisition does tend to concentrate mainly on other ethnicities than Caucasian, but differently-abled voices stories are also being published. As long as you have a disabled protagonist in your work that reflects your own disability, so you can speak with authenticity, I think you’ll be fine with #OwnVoices.
Thank you for answering my question, Laurie. Many of my stories have characters with dyslexia because I want to raise awareness for those (like myself) who have this disability.
I wonder at some of the same. Midlist authors. Writers losing more rights. If print will strengthen its hold. How ebooks will fair. I, too, have been more reluctant to pick up any ebooks lately as I have so many still to get through. Likewise with my print TBR pile. Although, I’m more likely to pick up print so I can keep the ones I love!
I hear you about the TBR pile. I have both an ebook TBR folder as well as a print TBR pile. Both are gigantic, to be honest. Lots of people throughout history have predicted the death of the book. But it’s not happened yet. And stories will always be around if you ask me. In as many formats as humans wish to consume. (AR and VR stories anyone?)
Heartening news that there is still a chance for new authors to break out. Also good to hear about the the continued interest in diverse voices. Thanks for sharing these insights. All the best for a bright 2020!
Best of luck, MEL.
Thank you, Laurie, for such an informative post. As a debut author with a memoir out for submission seeking agent representation, I take heart from the tiniest glimmer of hope, though as a Brit, I do also worry about Brexit… And so to 2020 with a deep breath!
I wish you all the best, Sherri. Let’s hope Brexit is not as apocalyptic as the news media would have us think.
Thank you greatly, Laurie, and yes, let’s hope not! Never a better moment to keep calm and drink tea, lots of it 🙂
Big publishers prefer to stick to those who bring the most bang for their buck. That’s why smaller publishers like my company are better bets for new authors who might not have a manuscript that fits in the big publisher’s box.
There’s a whole universe of publishing options out there!
Thanks, Laurie, for your foresight. You had something positive to say about KU. Could you add some detail to that comment? Are you seeing waxing and waning in marketing options: FB, Google ads, AMS, Book Bub, etc.?
It’s so difficult to comment on things like BookBub or Google or Facebook ads. They work great for some authors and not at all for others. They might work great for your first book, and totally fail promoting sales of the second book. You just have to experiment and keep up to speed on what’s working for other authors. Kindle Unlimited’s subscription model is pumping out “sales”, but what an author receives is still pennies on the retail price dollar. So, again, I encourage you to try different things and see what works for you and your writing.
I have a unique and never seen before in adult fiction novel I’m currently writing. I would love to have it traditionally published. After reading your article however, I’m concerned no one would take a chance on it or even look at it because it is not main stream. ???? Isn’t there any publishers out there that like unique ideas?
Teri…sigh…publishing is a journey. Enjoy every step of it. Even the bad reviews (which might teach you something), the agent rejections (same), small advances (an advance is really just a loan against royalties anyway), etc. One of my mentors used to say, “If you can do anything other than write, do it. Because writing is an extremely difficult way to make a living. But if you must write, then write. It’s the only thing you can do.” Take heart from that. Ply your craft. Learn learn learn about the craft of writing, the business of publishing, the techniques of sales and marketing. And enjoy every bit of it!
Thanks for sharing your predictions, Laurie. I’m not surprised about the popularity of audiobooks. They are such a convenient and enjoyable way to read. I love to read audiobooks when I walk my dog for exercise.
That’s what I call a win-win. You get to listen to audiobooks while you and your pet get exercise. Excellent practice!
Good to know that diversity is on the upswing. Nice article.
I do hope your prediction for audio book growth is correct. My Earthbound (an Amazon Best Seller) has done well in Australia, Canada, and the U. S. Narrators are working on two more. Enjoyed your take on publishing. Tweeted.
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