By Laurie McLean of Fuse Literary
Who could have predicted the bright ray of light that shined on publishing during this pandemic! But it did shine, and will continue to shine, as people rekindle their love of reading and writing! Publishing is more profitable than ever before in its history…for the second year in a row.
Once the streaming binge of Netflix, Disney+, Hulu and other channels grew a bit stale, people rediscovered books and how reading engages the imagination making it a totally different enjoyment experience than passively watching a screen. Books have been selling at a brisk pace ever since. And the profits reaped by the publishing giants has soared. I wish some would make it back to writers and the publishing staff, but that’s another story altogether.
Now that we can breathe a sigh of relief, what does publishing have in store for us in 2022? Here are my predictions:
1. Self-publishing will continue to grow and be profitable.
Bookstores will continue to prosper, even as Amazon continues to grow its market share. For the year to date (2021), bookstore sales are up 39.6%, to $7.1 billion. And that’s an increase from a huge year last year.
All of publishing is healthy and there is no reason for you not to get back on that horse and finish writing your books.
2. Diversity will grow even more, both with authors and with publisher staffs.
So many high-level (VP and up) positions were created to encourage and hire diverse staff within publishers. To me that’s the second phase of diversifying publishing. Phase one began 3-4 years ago with editors buying books from a more diverse ethnic and cultural pool of authors.
I don’t see that phase slowing down anytime soon either. But with the hiring of high-level diverse employees within publishing companies in phase two, we can begin to see real change in the industry. It will be a joy to watch and we’ll all be the richer for it.
3. Hybrid workplaces will deepen and New York will be the center of publishing in name only.
All plans to return to the publishers’ offices in January 2022 were cancelled as the Omicron variant surged this past fall. I believe this signals a huge shift in how publishing is done. When editorial and art departments can work from home, creativity can soar.
Change can happen. And the bureaucracy will be replaced with new energy and passion when employees don’t have to spend endless hours in meetings. Even with an increase in Zoom meetings, multitasking can make them bearable.
Hybrid work environments, now that employees have their home workspaces dialed in, are a harbinger of the future. And employers will dig the extra profits they make from a dramatic decrease in overhead.
4. There will be a huge fight over banned books.
Already publishing and writing associations are weighing in on this, and as politics rears its ugly head again next fall, you’ll see a lot of movement amongst state legislatures to ban more books. Watch for a fevered pitch of emotion on both sides around the midterms next November.
5. Supply chain and paper shortage woes will continue.
It takes a long time to straighten out something as broken as the publishing supply chain. Books with a lot of images (children’s picture books, coffee table books, novelty books) are mainly printed in China. But the empty cargo containers in the U.S. are not making it back to China for refilling and that is slowing down everything.
As agents, we see publication dates stretching out to 2025 and beyond. And I’m predicting that it won’t be fixed in 2022. And when you add to that the high cost of paper, the price of books at retail is going up (along with everything else you buy).
6. There will be a legal battle over how ebook sales are regulated to libraries.
Again, states are trying to legislate how much publishers can charge libraries to loan ebooks. This is a big deal, since it is the largest growth area for public libraries…especially during the pandemic. But even after we can once again go out safely in public, ebook reading is experiencing a sea change that some readers will never go back from.
This topic needs to be legislated from the federal level if the publishers won’t see reason.
7. Publishing will look more deeply at changing its business model.
Publishing companies can no longer deny that the 200-year-old way they’ve been running their empires makes no economic sense.
Here’s what Hachette CEO Michael Pietsch had to say about it: “Publishers have long carried the overhead of big-city offices, travel and entertainment, in-person events, book fairs, and other accustomed ways of operating. We’ve been profitable enough that we haven’t pressured ourselves to learn all we could do through long-available online communications, digital marketing, and remote-working capabilities.”
Working from home, freed from onerous commutes, without in-person calls, pitches, conferences, and shows, publishers have opened their minds to new ways of working.” This gives me hope that as profitability soars due to changes in an inefficient business model, authors might actually benefit through modestly higher advances and larger royalty percentages (especially in ebooks…I mean come on!)
8. Publishing mergers will take center stage.
In 2021 we saw Penguin Random House inch close to acquiring Simon and Schuster, turning the Big Five into the Big Four. Scholastic’s long-time leader Dick Robinson died, and instead of turning his controlling Class A stock shares over to his family as expected, he gave them to a longtime employee turned chair of the board, Iole Lucchese.
Queue the fireworks! Reese Witherspoon sold her books to film company, Hello Sunshine, to a private-equity company, mega agency Endeavor successfully went public (finally), and CAA acquired ICM. Many more mergers are on the horizon.
9. Booksellers are unionizing.
For too long, bookstore employees have been subject to the whims of bookstore owners in hiring, firing, benefits, safety and other decisions. It started with Politics and Prose in Washington D.C. It was then followed by Green Apple Books in San Francisco, Printed Matter in New York City, Elliot Bay Book Company in Seattle and Bookshop Santa Cruz in California.
More will come. Even Amazon warehouse workers are starting to unionize. Look for this movement to accelerate in 2022 and beyond.
10. eBooks are experiencing a growing spurt of popularity that is not going to diminish.
When you combine the paper shortage/price increases, supply chain woes and convenience of spontaneously acquiring an ebook in the privacy of your own home without having to get out of your pajamas, the lure is too sexy to resist.
For you self-published authors, time to get out your marketing and promotional hat, put your books on sale, spiff up the covers, really pay attention to your metadata (especially key search terms), so avid readers can find your work. Because ebooks are not going away.
11. Audiobook popularity will continue to grow.
See #10 above for reasons. Add in listening to stories while driving, making meals, exercising and you can see why.
12. And finally, a huge opportunity for authors.
The books-to-screen streaming phenomenon in Hollywood (and around the world) has accelerated faster than anyone could have predicted.
At Fuse Literary we’ve gone crazy fielding interest in optioning our clients’ books to be made into streaming series. I mean, the Wheel of Time series on Amazon Prime is just one example of how backlist titles are finally making it onto the small screen. I predict this pace will accelerate even more in 2022 since books are one of the main sources of scripts for these streaming adventures.
***
by Laurie McLean (@agentsavant) January 2, 2022
That’s it for 2022. What predictions do you have for the coming year, scriveners? Do you have any personal publishing predictions for 2022? What are your own publishing and writing plans for next year?
Laurie McLean
Laurie spent 20 years as the CEO of a multi-million dollar marketing agency and 8 years as an agent/senior agent at Larsen Pomada Literary Agents before co-founding Fuse Literary in 2013 with her business partner Gordon Warnock.
At Fuse Lit Laurie specializes in middle grade, young adult and adult genre fiction including romance, fantasy, science fiction, mystery, suspense, thrillers, and westerns.
Laurie is also the Director of the San Francisco Writers Conference, in its 18th year, and co-founded two ePublishing companies (now sold): Joyride Books for romance, and Ambush Books for tween and teen books. Find out more at FuseLiterary.com or on Instagram at fuseliterary, and on Twitter @FuseLiterary and @AgentSavant.
Thanks, Laurie, for such optimistic, encouraging and realistic predictions as we start a brand new year! Yay!
I see a bright future for publishing…especially now that the business side of things is looking back at the past two years and making big changes in how they work.
Excellent information and overview, Laurie. Thanks! I’m interested in your view of where AI is going in the near future for audio book recordings. From what I’ve seen and heard, text-to-speech technology is getting really life-like. (Plus affordable) And Happy 2021 to Anne & Ruth!
AI is definitely coming to publishing. We can bemoan it and fight it all we want, but it is going to keep coming. It’s an economic consideration and once it becomes cheaper to have a computer read aloud, as opposed to human voice talent, that’s when it will flip.
As far as audiobook recording, right now I’m afraid it’s more like Amazon/Audible’s WhisperSync than a human voice. Yes, the computer is reading the book, but the vocal inflections are missing. And this is on purpose. Publishers and authors (depending on the contract) retain the rights to license audiobooks, so a distributor like Amazon or Audible cannot usurp those contractual rights.
Now if you as the author license the audiobook rights to a company who uses AI voice talent, or hire an AI yourself (dear god, did I just say that?) to read your book aloud, that is another story. And we’ll see how readers/listeners judge the quality and likability of the performance. Time will tell.
Thanks, Laurie, for so many reasons to be optimistic. For an author, it would seem like the playing field gives us many opportunities to run with the ball (what can I say, husband is glued to the football game for the 200th hour straight 🙂 The challenge is to be organized in getting the word out, i.e. marketing. I’ve been lucky enough for the TV folks to knock on my door without knocking on theirs first, but that’s rarely the case. Discoverability is still a very big challenge and I’d love to hear some fresh predictions for how books will be discovered not only by readers but by those interested in secondary rights purchases.
Thanks for the update, Laurie. It sounds like 2022 is going to be a great year for writing and publishing. Just the news we want to hear!
I think it’s going to be great, Kay. For anyone emerging from Covid and blinking your eyes at the bright lights, now’s the time to kick that writing into high gear. Get ready.
Thank you for this inside look into the publishing industry, Laurie. As a neurodivergent author, I’m thrilled about your predictions. As an author who “also” writes illustrated books (such a picture books), not so much. Happy New Year to All.
Picture books ARE selling briskly to publishers, Leanne. Just plan for a long time between making that deal and having the books appear on bookstore shelves because of the supply chain woes.
Thank you for the clarification, Laurie.
I’ll take those predictions.
With so many books, why bother writing original screenplays when you can simply adapt from a book series. The Witcher also comes to mind.
Happy New Year to all!
Happy 2022, Alex.
Thank you, Laurie, for your savvy and knowledgeable predictions for 2022. As a self-published author, I look forward to the rise in readers enjoying e-books more than ever since that seems like the only thing I’m selling these days. I wonder if it’s going to be just as difficult in 2022 to find an agent as it has been for the last couple of years. I guess I’ll soon find out.
Publishing is a journey, Patricia. And everyone has a different story. Keep writing. Keep submitting your work. You will persevere.
Laurie, Always right on the top of things happening – publishing…why you were a rare annual presenter for me at the Central Coast Writers Conference…and why I transitioned to volunteer at SFWC…a treat to work with you and talented people in the industry. Have the best of a growth year in 2022. And thanks Anne for starting the year out right with Laurie. Judy
Judy my friend! Always a pleasure to see your name pop up. We’ve got important SFWC news coming on Wednesday, so keep your eyes on the newsletter and social media!
Fantastic information, Laurie! Thank you! I have been agonizing for years about self publishing my two novels, hoping to finally find ONE agent interested enough to sign me. But alas, nothing in almost ten years of trying. Thankfully, my stories are timeless. With your predictions and the many author friends I have telling me to self publish, I plan to do so soon. Thanks again for all your time and sharing this information with us! Happy New year!
Michael, if you’re going to self-publish, and I feel it is a totally legitimate way to get your books into readers’ hands, make sure you have a publishing team around you that at the bare minimum includes a proofreader, a cover designer, and a distributor (most people use Amazon’s Kindle platform since Amazon sells 50% of the print books and 75% of the ebooks in the US). Polish those books one more time before sending them out. You’ll thank yourself for this final editing pass.
Thanks you, Laurie. I will!
Thank you for posting this informative and encouraging information.
I hope 2022 is a great writing year for you.
Thank you, Laurie! I heard they were scouring backlist titles for streaming content, but I wasn’t sure if the trend would continue. Fabulous news!
I always tell writers that it’s the best time ever to be a writer. The distance between them and the reader is the internet. The only one who can stop them is themselves. Of course, it’s not that easy. But even 30 years ago, the only person who could stop a writer was themselves. The hardest part is learning the craft of writing in order to go beyond craft and become an artist. Every successful writer I know has one thing in common: they work really, really hard. They are also professionals in the business.
Thanks to Laurie for the inspiration for 2022 in the literary biz. Things to look forward to. Marketing hat needs a dusting for sure. Happy New Year to all. 🙂
It’s always fascinating to read Laurie’s predictions. This year it’s simultaneously fascinating, encouraging, & invigorating. Thanks once again.
Thanks, very interesting. You are not the first person to point to an upturn in ebooks. Paper shortages may be a catalyst.
I may self-publish this year but, like many authors, it’s the thought of doing my own publicity which holds me back.
Hi Anne,
What a great article! I have been working on a fiction book, and all of these publishing predictions will definitely help me decide the best course of action when I am finished with my book. I am glad that self-publishing has a bright future. As I am thinking of publishing my book myself. I gained a lot of insights from this article, and I really appreciate you sharing this amazing resource! Looking forward to reading more of your amazing articles.
John–This piece was written 100% by Literary agent Laurie McLean. Ruth and I are honored to have her make a yearly visit to the blog and make predictions for the industry’s future. Her predictions are pretty much spot on.
I think Laurie would agree with me that self-publishing is not for beginners. Successful self publishers know the business inside out, plus they have seasoned writing skills and the ability to write fast. Successful self-publishers produce 6-10 books a year. So if you’re going indie, prepare. Get 3-4 books polished and ready to go before you start self-publishing. But it is true that a savvy indie in the right genre can make more than most trad pubbed authors. And current market trends seem to show a rosy future ahead for them, as Laurie says here.
I have 3 decades of experience in all aspects– traditional, self, and even Amazon imprint. My recommendation right now for a new author, is to try and get an agent. Self-publishing is a steep learning curve that you would have to be doing while your really should be learning the craft of writing. The most important thing a person can do after finishing their first manuscript, is start writing their next one. It took me three manuscripts before I got an an agent and was published.
I agree with Anne and Bob. If you want to get a book published, whichever way you decide to do it, you need a publishing team around you. That might mean an agent and a traditional publisher. It might mean you self-publish, but you’ll still need a cover designer, editor, proofreader, marketing advisor, etc…basically everything you’d get if you signed with a traditional publisher.
Thanks for the great article, Laurie…and to you, Anne and Ruth, for having her. I found you all by way of Nathan Bransford and so I thank him too. I’d intended 2021 to be the year I published traditionally (I have two self-published e-books on Smashwords but have wanted to give traditional a try) but health issues (not covid-19) in the middle of the year put the brakes on that idea. I’m now a bit improved and have finished two memoir…but have found a real challenge in writing the queries. I think finding the right memoir agent will be a challenge as well. Still, one has to make the try. Thanks again for the encouraging article.
Really wonderful and insightful article! And where did you get what looks like a detail of a Pre-Raphaelite painting? As an artist, I really like the composition on this…
John–The featured image is a detail of Waterhouse’s 1902 painting “The Crystal Ball”. Which I should have acknowledges. I’ll fix that. I have to use my art history degree somehow. 🙂
I read an article about the new governor of New York killing an e-book library bill because of publisher concerns over copyright protection (see https://www.thebookseller.com/news/aap-welcomes-veto-new-york-e-book-library-licensing-bill-1297229). I’m torn on really wanting more access to books via my library and not wanting to step on authors’ copyright protection rights. I realize this is a complicated legal matter, but do you think any new federal legislation forcing publishers to share more books with libraries would harm the authors — or only the publishers’ bottom line?
As you said, Lila, a complicated legal issue which I prefer to leave to them to wrangle out. All I know is that publishers are kicking libraries while they’re down with their unfair licensing fees for ebooks. The pandemic really hurt libraries and they run on a shoestring budget anyway. So publishers have to reconsider this “per loan” way of paying for ebooks. When a library buys a hardcover book, it pays one price and has an unlimited number of loans on that book. But when it loans an ebook, it gets charged per loan (meaning the library pays a fee and receives a certain number of loans then has to pay again). The cost can be staggering for multiple copies of bestselling books. Regarding copyright infringement, yes, the author holds the copyright. But the publisher has licensed certain rights from that author and it seems to me that if the publishers would come to their senses about a reasonable payment structure for ebook lending to libraries, there would be no need for legislation, federal or otherwise.
Laurie–Thanks much for this clarification. It seems pretty simple now. Publishers are in the wrong on this. And authors should be fighting to get in libraries.
I agree and pray ???????? a lot of what you state happens and is happening. It was difficult being an author when digital books took off so I went back to film. I’m so ready to publish the books I’ve written and this read above is motivating.