Publishing Predictions: Laurie McLean Looks in her Crystal Ball
by Laurie McLean
Hold onto your pens, people…it’s going to be a wild ride.
It’s that time of year again. I present to you Predictions in Publishing: the 2021 Edition!
It’s hard to believe that last year at this time I was bemoaning the fact that the book publishing industry seemed to have stagnated and not a lot was changing. Then, WHOOSH, in March everything changed all at once. And here we are counting down the days to the final end to the Year of the Great Pause, where we can see the light at the end of the tunnel into 2021. Let’s hope it’s not a train! (It’s not a train…)
So this year’s post will be very different. I won’t go into too much detail on each prediction for this coming year, because there are so many of them! As CNN news personality Chris Cuomo says, “Let’s get after it!”
1) Publishing Professionals Leave New York
More editors, agents and other publishing pros have moved out of the New York City metro area, and are working from homes in other cities, and even states, where the cost of living is significantly lower. If they bought or rented a house with a yard and several bedrooms/office space elsewhere, or moved in with their parents and find it delightful, the thought of moving back into a comparably-priced studio or one-bedroom apartment in Manhattan or Brooklyn might not be strong enough to get them to return.
They have gotten comfortable with working remotely. They are now Zoom or Google Meeting pros. And they see how much more work they can get done (especially editing) if they don’t have to commute or do endless in-person meetings every day. Even art departments have developed successful workarounds. This has fundamentally changed the publishing process.
As we move into the future, I believe you’ll see a diaspora of publishing professionals, just like tech workers or other non-geographically-tied workers have experienced, and eventually they will either be located in a smaller building in NYC or will Zoom-in remotely when needed, only visiting the main office once a month or so. It has long been the case with agents and even the odd editor, but now it will be commonplace among the major houses. New York will be the center of publishing in name only. Virtual companies will have the edge.
2) Short Fiction and Essays Experience a Renaissance.
There is concern that after people are out and about again, moving freely, interest in reading will dip. People have shown they love online streaming entertainment. Disney has reorganized to make their streaming service the core of their future business model. People will crave the close contact with friends and family by next summer, not reading, which is a solitary pursuit.
Yet change is the one constant in publishing. Did you know about the rise in popularity of short written works, short audio, plus poetry? Well I predict that everyone will incorporate some type of shorter reading bursts into their entertainment and education absorption. Maybe not long novels. But articles, essays, poetry, short stories and more are about to experience a Renaissance.
You can read or listen to them on your phone or laptop or tablet. It wouldn’t surprise me if Instagram or Snapchat started publishing serialized or flash fiction/nonfiction on their apps. Feed the Need. Smart publishers will make this transition between devices seamless for readers. Make the platform irrelevant. Keep the story or poem or article at the center of the experience.
I’m going to be bold and predict that not only will reading continue to be popular, its popularity will even grow in 2021 and beyond as experimentation with alternative distribution mechanisms occurs. Binge-watching a streamed television show is fun, but it’s passive. And I think a lot of people found that out in the early days of the pandemic.
The experience of reading excites your imagination, penetrates deep into the brain to improve critical thinking skills, allowing you to grow and learn while you’re being entertained. It will always be around, although the format for its consumption may evolve.
3) Reading on Screens Increases
Everyone got used to buying all kinds of things online, and that includes ebooks. But will this trend continue once bookstores are open again?
I believe so. Readers have become comfortable with reading on a screen as part of the total ecosystem of reading, just as they’ve become comfortable with shopping at their local retail stores as well as Amazon, Bookshop.org, indie bookstores, reading apps, etc.
They will consume hardcover, trade paperback, mass market, ebooks, audiobooks and any new format that comes along. Publishers need to understand that and work it into their P&Ls on stories and worlds they want to license.
4) Fiction Makes a Comeback
And what about nonfiction pummeling fiction in sales over the past 4 years? Will this continue? Nonfiction has experienced a huge rise in popularity (it sold 35%+ more than fiction in 2020) due to the political schism in this country exacerbated by Donald Trump. But already Trump tell-alls are starting to experience a decline, so I believe that by the end of 2021, fiction will begin to make a comeback.
Also, nonfiction will begin to be more issues-oriented than politically-oriented. Bookstores are already touting Bill Gates’ new 2021 book, How to Avoid a Climate Disaster. And the mental wellness entertainment trend just keeps growing, especially with Millennial and Gen-Z readers.
Headspace, the meditation app, will have its own show on Netflix. I think these kinds of nonfiction titles will sell well in 2021 as Joe Biden steadies the ship and readers begin to ponder large longer-term issues instead of focusing on daily emergencies.
5) Bookstores Adapt
Indie bookstores (traditional publishing’s main retail outlet) have been severely disrupted. Do they survive and thrive or collapse? Will Barnes & Noble make it? Will Amazon continue to dominate or will Bookshop.org challenge them? I think all these issues will play out in the latter half of 2021.
I think indie bookstores have already pivoted successfully by being creative and community-minded. They rocked drive-by distribution and deliveries. They figured out how to do many of their promotional events and author “signings” online.
It’s the larger box bookstores like Barnes & Noble, now under a new management team led by Brit James Daunt, who I see fumbling the ball and perhaps not being fiscally viable much longer. Five years and they’ll either be gone or severely smaller. That’s my prediction. Amazon is hastening their exit. Look back at prediction number 3.
6) Indie Authors Have a Resurgence
Indie authors are about to experience another resurgence. Especially if they can figure out audiobooks (maybe outside of ACX?). And alternative publishing formats. Ask me about Serial Box, Radish, and Crazy Maple Studio. There is a lot of entrepreneurial creativity going on in publishing right now. Some will rise, some will fail, but it will be very interesting to experience.
7) Kids Get Cozy with Screens
Remote learning is going to change how children relate with online reading, and, like Apple’s rise to dominance in the 1980s and 90s by seeding schools with Apple products, these kids will be perfectly comfortable with digital books as they mature into young adult and adult readers.
I’ve long said that picture books for babies and toddlers will never go digital as long as the total experience of parent’s snuggling the child and sharing heartbeats is a part of it. But if kids become acclimatized to snuggling with dad or grandma, sharing a tablet, and reading an animated fairy tale together, all bets are off. We might be heading towards the future with a fuzzy AI robot snuggling with our children and reading them stories sooner than we think! And we might see kids mature into digital readers soon.
8) Online Book Promotion Becomes the Norm
Virtual book promotion is here to stay. It already was not making economic sense to send an author on a multi-city tour to promote a book, when only a handful of fans would show up at the local Barnes & Noble in each city. If all bookstores, even small ones in rural locations, can get an author to do a 1-hour Zoom chat about their book with fans who’ve already ordered the pre-autographed book from said indie bookstore, it’s going to catch on. It’s affordable, easy to accomplish, and readers will like it if they can watch their author heroes while in their jammies.
Also, need I say, school visits will become a lot more accessible and affordable if done virtually. This way authors can earn a few dollars and bookstores can scale up or down depending on the popularity of the authors virtually visiting their locales.
9) Publishing Gets More Diverse
Diversity. I probably should have led with this one. Diversity is here. It’s not going to stop. It’s going to get stronger and bigger and more diverse as we move through 2021 and beyond. Just look at the award-winning books this year. And the bestsellers.
We’ve discovered a wide variety of voices and fallen in love with them. Agents want #ownvoices authors. So do editors. And most importantly, so do readers. Capturing the zeitgeist of #BlackLivesMatter and #MeToo, these movements are here to stay. If you haven’t read books from culturally diverse voices, what the heck are you waiting for?
10) Amazon Will License Ebooks to Libraries
And my final prediction (although there are more areas where change is going to continue) is that Amazon will finally enter the library lending game by licensing its ebooks to libraries. They’re talking now. I think it will get settled this year and you’ll see Amazon-imprint ebooks in library catalogues by next Christmas.
Okay. Those are my predictions. I’d love to hear yours. Please feel free to comment and I’ll dip in and out throughout the week with my thoughts.
by Laurie McLean, Founding Partner, Fuse Literary (@agentsavant)
What about you, scriveners? Do you have any publishing predictions do you have for 2021? What are your own publishing and writing plans for next year?
Laurie McLean
Laurie spent 20 years as the CEO of a multi-million dollar marketing agency and 8 years as an agent/senior agent at Larsen Pomada Literary Agents before co-founding Fuse Literary in 2013 with her business partner Gordon Warnock.
At Fuse Lit Laurie specializes in middle grade, young adult and adult genre fiction including romance, fantasy, science fiction, mystery, suspense, thrillers, and westerns.
Laurie is also the Director of the San Francisco Writers Conference, in its 18th year, and co-founded two ePublishing companies (now sold): Joyride Books for romance, and Ambush Books for tween and teen books. Find out more at FuseLiterary.com or on Instagram at fuseliterary, and on Twitter @FuseLiterary and @AgentSavant.
Everyone is so used to staring at a screen now. I certainly don’t mind the virtual author events.
I hope that the sea change I’d been waiting for in digital reading of all sorts is finally upon us!
Laurie—Thanks for such an interesting and stimulating post. There is much to look forward to in 2021—and the changes you forecast are high on the list!
Let’s hope I’m right. Publishing was uncharacteristically resilient in 2020. I sold as many books to publishers as any other year. At least half of my colleagues at Fuse Literary had amazing years. Since I believe the first half of 2021 is going to look a lot like the last half of 2020, I think publishing will continue to be healthy and adaptable in the coming year. Keep writing everyone!
Hey Anne & Ruth & Laurie,
I’m typically not a fan of all the retrospectives & predictions for the following year that come about this first week of January. However, I look forward to Laurie’s predictions on this blog every year. She has a beautiful grasp on the industry, & I particularly love her positivity.
Thanks, csperryess!
Thanks, Laurie, for sharing your ‘projections’. I also look forward to your annual post, as I share your insights with my author clients.
As someone who spends all day reading via computer and having older eyeballs, I don’t do rec. reading by screen, preferring the tactile experience of holding a book. But these past months, as my vision has changed and cataracts creep in, I have become an audio-book addict. I can listen to an old favorite or a newly discovered author while painting, drawing, sewing, playing with my dog — it’s great because listening doesn’t have to be done in a passive or static position. I do my Max machine sprints while listening and even clean up the kitchen or do other housework. The mundane flies by as I’m deeply absorbed in the story being piped into my ears or resonating through my house.
So, would love to see audio-books explode — so would my soon-to-be published author clients!
Happy New Year to all!
Maria, I’ll share a not-so-secret secret among literary agents…we listen to a lot of audiobooks, because our reading time is mainly spent reading & editing client manuscripts. As you mentioned, audiobooks are great to listen to when your body is occupied doing mundane chores, but your mind is free to wander and imagine. And audiobooks continue their rise in popularity. Now if we can only find an alternative to ACX for indie authors!
Okay, I guess I will be the dissenting voice but I really hope Laurie is wrong about increased reading screen time. I can tolerate eBooks format for a short story or a novelette, maybe a novella if it is engrossing enough, but a typical 500 or more sci-fi/fantasy novel? No way.
Also, am I the only one with Zoom (and Skype) fatigue?
These I tolerate due to the circumstances. After a long day in the office of these zoom meetings coming home to back to back zoom meetings… Your brain craves anything but looking at a screen.
Otherwise, I can see all the other predictions happening. And yeah to indie bookstores. Their strength will always be its closeness to the community unlike the big chains.
The popularity of ebooks might be an age-dependent factor. The younger generation is hooked on their digital devices and will probably read all kinds of content from blog posts to full-length novels and nonfiction books on their iPhones or Samsung Galaxies. We’ll see. But when I witness kids as young as kindergarten plunking away on their Chromebook keyboards for remote learning, to me it’s an inevitable shift, and one authors should plan for in the ebook versions of their work. Of course we’ll always have print books as well as ebooks. But as this new generation becomes adults and most older folks die out, digital will be the preferred way to absorb information and entertainment.
Sounds about right! #10 was the only one I hadn’t given any thought to already–wonder what the fall-out will be! Great list.
Amazon is in deep discussions now about library lending of KDP and their own Amazon imprint ebooks. Since this is the highest growth section of library lending, it will be interesting to see what they offer.
Happy New Year Anne, Ruth and Laurie and thanks for these projections, Laurie. I’m already enjoying a career change after decades trad publishing, releasing my first indie novella (what I call short reads) before Christmas and working on a second for end January. Doing new things is exhilarating, and my First Monday blog, posted yesterday,at https://tinyurl.com/ya3bqc24 emphasises the need to be positive and kind to ourselves. One commenter said she replaces “I have to…” with “I get to….” I love that so much.
That’s a wonderful way to look at life, Valerie.
Thanks for the not-stiff-upper-lip buy the store and you’ll be famous very refreshing article. I do believe that my series will rock and that old gizzards like me who came up from the wild 60/70s and are now retired and writing will rock the publishing industry. We have been there, done that and survived. Amen!
Keep up the positive attitude, Marta!
Happy New Year, ladies – Anne, Ruth & Laurie. I really appreciate your insider view of the publishing world, Laurie. Thanks for sharing your experience and vision with us. I’ll throw my miners hat on and spotlight something technological that I think is going to happen – if it’s not already underway in some Crazy Maple-like studio in the Valley of Silicon.
Interactive eBooks. My bet is we’re going to see huge forward strides in text-to-voice technology where eReaders will be able to select delivery options like reading in print, listening to a decent, built-in audio-conversion (where the producer doesn’t have to invest in expensive human voice-overs and publish separate audio versions), as well as musical tracts and evolving visuals to make for a complete and interactive story-following experience. I’d like to patent it, but I have a hard enough time to C&P a copyright boiler plate on a Word.doc.
I think you might be 5-10 years premature in your prediction about interactive ebooks, Garry. But I’ve been wrong before. Every 5 or so years, publishers try to mine this potential gold field and fail. And Amazon tried to get their text to speech “reading” of print and digital books, but were sued by the publishing industry immediately. So there’s a legal impediment in the way as well. If it remains too expensive for indie authors to do these things (music, voice-overs, multi-voice recordings), it will be awhile until this ultimate next step appears.
I love this. It’s very informative, especially for a self-published author (which I just became in 2020). Your predictions are really helpful as I begin my journey into this year.
Thank you.
You’re welcome, Patricia. Good luck with your writing.
Thanks for the predictions, Laurie. Though #10 rather gobsmacked me as something I hadn’t considered. Knowing how wonky Amazon can be at times, they’d best get the logistics right to make sure that authors or publishers get credit for those page reads, With the latest Audiblegate faux pas, and lack of transparency, Amazon needs to get this one right. Especially with other publishing avenues nipping at their heels.
Other than that, the rest look promising. May 2021 be kind to us all.
It will be interesting to see how they work this all out. It has been rumored that the long time president of Macmillan (one of the Big 5, soon to be Big 4, publishers) was forced out due to his draconian library ebook borrowing policies.
Thanks so much for this Laurie. It’s all quite thought provoking and I agree it’s largely optimistic. I’m in a trough right now, neither my Muse nor my voice available, so it’s a good time to think- again- about the best way to market and position.
What you said about the Zon into libraries sent a chill but makes perfect sense. Maybe they’ll just buy Overdrive? Anne, please bring her back to spill everything about new a-book outlets and formats!
Don’t give up, Will! 2020 was a bastard of a year, but your Muse (and voice) will return once you’ve recovered from all the bile and division.
Thanks to Laurie for these interesting predictions which I’m totally on board with. 🙂
You have excellent taste!
Lol, why thank you! 🙂
I enjoyed reading Laurie’s predictions. I think it will be a good move for agents and editors to move outside of New York City so they have more affordable housing and a better living wage. I also hope that a lot of publicity goes virtual because more of us can follow our favorite authors when their books release and they can reach so many more readers.
It sure will be an interesting change.
Excellent predictions! Our daughter’s books, Neva Bell Books, have been exploding on Amazon. She strongly believes ebooks and audio books are the future. The younger generations are there now and even the older generation is getting used to e-reader devices. Based on her 1st year success, I would say many of your predictions are on point. Thank you for a wonderful article that is very insightful for both author’s and reader’s.
Glad you agree and best of luck to your daughter on her career as an author!
I find your predictions to be…interesting, to say the least. However, it seems that your political views have shaded some of your commentary just a tad.
Re: non-fiction. Like it or not, President Trump got things done. Also, the hatred for the President started in 2015 and just intensified over the years. Thus the reason for so many “tell-all” books about him. Question: did you see that many about the previous three presidents?
Re: Indie Renaissance. In order for something to have a “renaissance” it has to be on the decline. From what I’ve read, seen and heard, it hasn’t declined at all. It has either stayed level or increased in the past few years. People like to read, but they don’t like to wait. I know of indie writers who have at least a half dozen quality books published versus a trad published writer in the same time period (5 years). I know of some who churn out quality product at least 12 per year.
Re: B&N. It won’t last 5 years. A better prediction would be 2 or 3 tops. Too much damage was done and traditionally published writers will lose that one last major national outlet to have their books showcased. They’ll have to go the local/state wide route instead, and we know how much the Big 5 love to invest money smartly.
Your predictions are interesting to say the least, and I thank you for the read.
I’ve learned not to argue with people who prefer opinion to facts. Being a professional in the business of publishing, perhaps I experience a lot more facts about the industry than you do. I don’t know. But I stand by my assessment.
Thank you for these positive predictions, Laurie! I have my 1st Zoom book signing on Thursday. All in all, I like the concept. Fingers crossed that there’s no tech glitches! I would hate to think in-person book signings are a thing of the past, though. I put in too much time, appearing at the same venues year after year, adding or subtracting venues depending on the turnout, to build a local fanbase who shows up at my events. To think I wouldn’t get to mingle with my readers in the same way breaks my heart. I’m also a realist who knows authors need to remain flexible. Anyway, thanks again. Hope you have an amazing day, ladies!
Here’s an idea. If you crave the physical interactions with your fans, instead of a book signing in a bookstore where you’ll only have a handful of readers attend, why not do a casual gathering outdoors once the weather turns nice again? A book picnic with your book cover printed on cloth napkins which you give away to attendees. A book reading and wine tasting with your name imprinted on the wine glasses. A socially-distanced book club meeting tour where you raffle off a prize. It’s time to rethink the old ways of doing things and invent new, creative, fun ways of getting the same results–the adrenaline rush of meeting fans–but not by doing the same-old, same-old. I bet you’d get a lot more fans to come!
What a brilliant idea! I love the idea of a book signing picnic! Way more fun than the usual kind.
Fantastic idea, Laurie! I’ve been mulling over the possibility of holding a signing at some of the outside murder scenes in my local series. Perhaps I could combine the two. Murder picnic. 🙂
Fascinating post. Since I started in New York with more than thirty books published and chose to switch to self publishing, I found your view of the industry interesting and thought provoking. I am doing my first virtual author presentation this month at the Sunshine State Book Festival
http://www.sunshinestatebookfestival.com/
I am very excited to see how it is received.
I wish you all the luck in the world for a wonderful experience. I’m quite used to Zoom and Crowdcast presentations now and I find them fascinating. I do miss the human interaction portion of book festivals and writers conferences, but one day we’ll be able to do those again as well.
Excellent post, Laurie. Fab predictions and I do hope you’re right about short fiction experiencing a Renaissance. Cheers! Thanks for sharing Laurie’s predictions with us, Anne (and Ruth). Happy New Year to you all.
Well done, Laurie. I always look forward to your words of wisdom, which come from your vast experiences. Love the book-signing picnic idea. I had several successful Zoom events in 2020 as part of my recent book launch. It was fun, free to participants, and books purchased as a result.
You will always hold a special place in my heart, Laurie, for your inspiration and encouragement for “Bridges” for sfwc volunteers.
Great predictions, Laurie. I’ve personally got more into short stories and essays in the last year, so I hope that holds true for other people as well.