Publishing predictions: Laurie McLean’s annual look into her crystal ball.
By Laurie McLean, Founding Partner of Fuse Literary Agency
The last year has seen a maturation of many of the trends that were sparked by the revolution in publishing that began a decade ago. Indie publishing. Social media marketing. The birth of Author-preneurs. Smart phones as reading devices. Digital diversity. The democratization of publishing.
While a lot of these trends will continue to deepen and extend, there are a few speed bumps or even large potholes ahead that you’ll have to watch out for.
Here are my predictions for 2019. (All opinions are my own.)
Diversity Continues its Dominance
One of the unforeseen yet marvelous results of the democratization of publishing is the emergence of #ownvoices authors and the increasing desire for marginalized voices to be heard and read. Top Ten and Best Books of the Year lists are crammed with nearly unpronounceable author names and stories about people and places foreign to most readers.
Publishing is slowly becoming more reflective of our society as a whole and that is a very good thing. We Need Diverse Books. In 2017 only 9% of children’s books featured African or African-America characters. We obviously have a large upside to explore.
Editors and agents are hungry for well-written books written by non-Caucasian authors. And I think that trend will accelerate in 2019.
Resurgence of Indie Bookstores as Destinations
When Borders Books went bankrupt and consumers began buying more and more of their books (and everything) from Amazon, things looked bleak for publishing’s beloved retail channel.
But something wonderful has happened. Indie bookstores, whose demise has often been predicted but has not happened, began to flourish. They added complementary items to their stores. They added cafes or partnered with good ones. Some added the capability to print books instantly through technology.
But the heart of indie bookstores was what really saved them. They are filled with book lovers as staff who can help you find the exact book you want for yourself or as a gift. Bookstores, with their bestselling author visits, workshops and conferences, classes, parties and other events, have finally become the destination book lovers craved.
Through smart expense management, good solid marketing, and really knowing their customers, indie bookstores are thriving across America. Let’s hope this trend continues (and it will if you buy books there!)
The Rise of Smart Phones as e-Readers
With the rising percentage of people using mobile phones as an extension of themselves, it makes sense that books would find a home on them alongside texts, games, music, Instagram, Twitter, Facebook and all those other handy apps. I would love to predict that in 2019 savvy authors will really study this small, portable reading format and create a new kind of book perfectly suited to the screen size and shortened reading times.
Of course I’m still waiting for ebooks v2.0, so we may not see a spark of something new on iPhones or Galaxies for a while yet.
Audiobooks and Podcasts are More Popular Than Ever
The sales numbers continue to accelerate. More people are listening to podcasts and books in commute traffic, at home while relaxing, pretty much anywhere they have a mobile phone or mp3 audio system. And it doesn’t look like they’re going to put the brakes on anytime soon.
Because they’re so popular (and profitable) audiobooks have joined ebooks and print books as “must have” rights traditional publishers won’t do a deal without. Audible continues to innovate in this space with subscription-based services, original audio stories, and “all you can absorb” genre titles (romance for now) for a monthly fee.
Podcasts are getting more and more professional and interesting. If you haven’t listened to a podcast ever, there’s a new year’s resolution you’ll be happy you made.
Nonfiction Will be King For a While Longer
If you look at the runaway mega bestsellers for 2018, most of them were Trump-related political nonfiction. Fire and Fury. Becoming. Unhinged. Fear. A Higher Loyalty. It seemed like every week there was some political expose that made bestsellers out of midlist or debut authors who had dirt on the President.
I expect this to accelerate in 2019 as Trump’s politics continue to dominate the news cycle and we approach the 2020 election cycle. (It’s okay to let out a groan or huge sigh right about now. I feel your pain.)
I don’t see a mega bestseller in fiction emerging in 2019, but I can’t rule one coming out of left field either. It is probably a consequence of readers not buying as much fiction because they’re buying Trump nonfiction instead.
There was only one novel that sold more than a million copies in 2018: The President is Missing by Bill Clinton and James Patterson. I rest my case.
We’re in Love with RomCom
A micro-trend I see happening in 2019 is that editors are starting to buy a lot of romantic comedy titles (YA and adult). I think it’s a reaction to the gruesome or disturbing news we’re greeted with every moment of the day.
Maybe when this trend wanes it will be an indication that the insanity of our world has calmed down and readers will once again want to engage with the real world instead of retreating into fantasy. But who knows when that will occur.
And speaking of gruesome news:
Negative Trends to Watch out for in 2019’s Publishing Predictions
Financial Meltdown on the Horizon
The world has been in a bull market for more than a decade and most financial pundits are calling for an end to that upward trend in 2019. In fact, the way the stock market was tanking in December could mean it is already starting to happen.
While a financial downturn, or even a collapse, affects all industries, publishing, with its microscopic margins, could be hit hard. Advances will get smaller. Marketing budgets will shrink further. Even the number of books bought by traditional publishers will go down.
Might this be the year where Amazon changes the KDP percentages it offers to authors? 70/30 (or 60/40) if you are Amazon-exclusive via Kindle Select and 50/50 for authors who want to have their books on all platforms? Time will tell. But it would not surprise me at all that Amazon will react to financial pressure in every way available to it.
People Are Spending Less Time Reading Books
It should be a surprise to none of you that people of all ages, sexes, races and socio-economic levels have split their entertainment hours into a myriad of activities.
Gaming. Social Media interaction. Streaming and binge watching. Outdoor activities. Sports. Dining. Watching CNN or Fox obsessively. And, oh yeah, reading books. The statistics are abysmal. More than one-quarter of U.S. adults read no books last year.
Of the 74% who did read a book, many did not finish.
The number of people who read has been steadily decreasing since the early 1980s. And the reading portion of leisure activities is continuing to decline. I see an opportunity for cross-pollination here. Books based on videogame characters. Books that accompany favorite TV shows. Even nonfiction that can accompany sports or après-sports time. We cannot deny this long-term trend. But we can capitalize on it. Especially with digital content.
It’s An Ecosystem. Support it All!
For years many have tried to position the publishing “wars” as ebook versus print books and indie authors versus traditional authors. I’ve always felt these were wrongheaded comparisons. We operate in a publishing ecosystem that contains all these components with more emerging every year.
Readers want stories everywhere on all devices (even hardcover books whose demise has been predicted by others over the years). They want to start reading a book on a Kindle, switch to a laptop, and finish on their Samsung Note. Hey, when VR really catches on, I hope we’ll see immersive versions of books!
But what I hope does go by the wayside in 2019 is the spurious fighting between print/ebooks and indie/traditional books. At Fuse Literary I have a lot of successful hybrid authors who have successful careers in many different ways. It’s an ecosystem.
That means buying books in multiple places to protect the fullness of the ecosystem. I mean, buy at Amazon, sure. But buy at Barnes & Noble and your corner bookstore too. Let’s create the world we want to be available to us when we publish books ourselves.
So there you have it. My 2019 publishing predictions. What do you see on the horizon for publishing?
by Laurie McLean (@agentsavant) December 30, 2018
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Anne has a new post over at her book blog. Leave a comment to win a copy of her new book Googling Old Boyfriends.
And many thanks to the writing community at ProLitFic in Austin Texas who gave First Prize to my blogpost “Confessions of a Slow Writer” in their November competition.
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Anne and Ruth want to wish our readers a Happy and Prosperous 2019! Don’t forget we have some fabulous book deals for you:
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Laurie—Thanks for the smart and savvy predictions. May the positive ones come true. The negative ones? Not so much.
Have a Happy New Year!
Thanks Ruth! A very Happy and Prosperous New Year to you.
Thanks for this view into the crystal ball. The RomCom news is great, because that means more people will introduce themselves to Anne’s books — such a perfect blend of mystery, literary humor, & romantic comedy. And I particularly appreciate the ecosystem thought — how true, how true.
The two messages I am going to be pushing in my conference appearances this year are 1) supporting the entire publishing ecosystem with purchases of books (indie, Amazon, chain stores, audio) and 2) that there is not a war between ebooks and print books, but all formats of storytelling should be supported in order to thrive. Yes. Book ecosystems are important to protect!
I hope the positive predictions become true and the not-so-positive ones do not.
I agree with most of your predictions but… Using smartphones as e-readers?
Only for flash fiction. It is hard to read even a short story on a phone.
Happy new year, Anne! I am looking forward to read your articles in 2019.
I won’t ask how old you are ingmarhek, but this seems to be a generational thing. I can’t tell you how many millennials and younger readers are perfectly content reading on their cell phones and, even more, listening to audiobooks via their ear buds.
A lot of people in Japan read on their smart phones, way more than they do here, so I can see it growing. My audio books sold well at first but there are so many more options now, sales have really declined. But hopefully more people do get hooked on audio books!
Hi Alex. I agree about Japanese readers who are totally comfortable with smart phones as ereaders. I am interested to see how the marketing of audio books evolves in a different way (to some extent) than marketing print books or ebooks. I feel as if we’re at marketing 101 with digital book products. And I am excited to see how this develops over the next five years or so. I’m sure Amazon, and their audio divisions Audible and Brilliance, will lead the way in innovative marketing techniques
Hi, fascinating predictions here and yay for ecosystems. My biggest growth area in Japan is in Manga (graphic novels) which are keeping my backlist ticking over. They were also first into books on phones – called chunking back then, because the books went to their phones in chunks. At my hairdresser I see patrons of all ages reading on their phones. I’m a Kindle gal myself and have 600 books on mine. In my workshops I’m encouraging attendees to write shorter – paragrahs and stories – to suit phone readers and avoid dense pages of text. I’ve been in the business 40 years and see more opportunities for writers now than ever before. Happy New Year to all.
Thanks very much Laurie. I agree with everything you said (much as I’d love to disagree about some of that bad news). Rom-Com’s popularity is great news for Anne here and well deserved! I have to say, I laughed out loud when you closed that section implying those readers are taking a “retreat into fantasy”! From where I stand, rom-com is a jitterbug back-step! But to each their own.
I wonder if the rise of indie physical stores means anything good for any alternate e-book platform? Doesn’t seem like it, the web is so click-conscious and it looks like the Zon has won that one.
Do you hear anything about the fortunes of audiobooks? I guess I’m especially interested to know if the Zon is going to dominate there through Audible.
Hi Will. Thanks for your question. Since Amazon has already purchased the two big gorillas in audio books–Audible for mp3 downloadable audio books, and Brilliance for physical CD-based audio books–and since they are a very innovative business in marketing and sales, it seems logical that they will continue to dominate the audio book market for some time to come. But I wouldn’t count out the Big Five publishers, who have all put audio production facilities in their NY high rises, and the big audio book producers who were already out there and don’t want to lose ground to Amazon, such as Recorded Books, Blackstone, and others.
Everyone in the publishing business understands that audio books are where the profits are for the foreseeable future and they are scrambling to get or keep their piece of that pie. In fact, it is nearly impossible for agents to get a big publishing deal these days without licensing the audio rights to the publisher. Audio has become a required primary right instead of a negotiable subsidiary right for most publishers, alongside print and ebook rights.
I am eager to see if any publishers or indie authors will produce alternate/premium audio versions of their books to appeal to the discerning audiofile listener (sound effects, multiple voices, music, etc.). But as I said earlier, I’m still waiting for alternate choices in ebooks as opposed to the exact same version of the print book, and it’s been a decade now. So I’m not holding my breath.
As far as your other question about alternate ebook platforms, I just don’t see it. Unless it’s a niche or local focus. And even then I don’t see it. Amazon has run unhindered for a decade and continues to innovate in all facets of their business. It’s more likely that Amazon would buy any alternate ebook platform that starts to take off and incorporate it into their business.
Have a great 2019!
This is fascinating, Laurie, and I’m so glad to have read it – thank you. It’s particularly interesting that there were no proper fiction blockbusters last year. It seems we’re swinging so heavily between harsh reality and total fantasy I’m surprised we don’t have mental whiplash. Although as headlines get worse, I’ve found myself retreating more and more into historical fiction. Maybe it’s because there’s comfort to be had in reading about hardship within the confines of known outcomes!
That’s a great point, Tara. I should have classified rom-com as escapist fiction, just like historical fiction, adventure, fantasy, science fiction, etc. Like all other trends, once the 2020 election is decided, casual nonfiction readers are going to abandon political (or at least Trump-based) nonfiction in droves for a more balanced reading experience with fiction and nonfiction in all its variety. At least that’s my opinion. And I hope that I’m right!
Thank you- interesting news about trends. Certainly positive to see an increase in diversity. I hope you don’t mind a small correction- we’ve been in a ‘bull’ market for 10 years, not bear.
Like minds! I sent Anne an email this morning asking her to change bear to bull in that section. That’s a big typo and one that definitely changes the intent of my prediction. I’m bullish that you caught it! Thanks, Jena.
Hi Laurie, I like your prediction and I agree, words are available for everyone to write and every voice should be heard without any ethnic boundaries. I love to hold a book when I read but I also on my computer. And yes, supporting local book stores is always a winner. Let’s have an amazing 2019!
Write like the wind in 2019, Ohitiin! We need all the voices we can get! Happy New Year to you too.
There’s a very strong wind coming your way at the beginning of 2019 Laurie, and it might feels like a wind storm. Are you ready?
Hi Laurie – and thanks for this wonderful post! I guess I’m an example of your publisher predictions: I’m a comic caper/crime writer, and yet my publisher has asked for two romantic comedies from me recently. It’s very interesting switching to that genre and readership (although I’ve always had a romance going in every book, as a necessary subplot.)
I have some stats you might appreciate. This term, I asked my adult Crafting a Novel college students to tally the number of books they read last year. Keep in mind that these people want to be authors. The max number of books read was 50. The average was 9, and the low was 0 or 1 (he couldn’t remember if he actually read a book.) I then explained that I read 2 books a week – that’s over 100 a year. And that all authors I know do. Shock in the classroom. But it begs the question: Why would ANYONE want to be an author, or think they could be, if they don’t read as a hobby?
You know the six rules of writing, Melodie: Read, read, read, write, write, write. Writers must read. Editors must read. Publishers must read. Agents must read. I try to read one book a week (not counting my clients’ manuscripts…of which I read/edit at least one a week!), so your 100 number is spot on. Seems daunting until you remember that you love reading and it’s why you got into the business in the first place!
Have a great 2019. I hope you find at least 25 books that you love in the new year!
This was the first I have seen of the possibility of Amazon changing percentages to incentivize authors to stay exclusive to KDP and not “go wide.” That would certainly impact Barnes and Noble, Kobo, and the other ebook retailers. As far as rom-com and escapist fiction goes, I saw a recent article on marketing that posited that the word “escape” is now the most popular marketing word. Perhaps publishers have decided that everyone wants to escape their own life and be lost in another’s.
*runs off to escape the real world*
What a solid list of predictions. Thanks! But this hurts: “More than one-quarter of U.S. adults read no books last year. Of the 74% who did read a book, many did not finish.” Wow. A sobering statistic for sure.
I’m glad I’m not in that figure. A few hours ago I typed up my 2018 read list. 46 books. Both print and ebook versions. Plus library loans, both digital and hard copy. Though Amazon one-click does make it way too easy.
I spread the book buying love around. I agree, we have to create the world we want to live in. And protect future generations.
Happy New Year to you all!
May there be more people like you in the world, Maureen! Happy New Year.
This is all exciting news. Thank you for sharing.
You are welcome, Patricia. Happy New Year.
Hi. I like that romantic comedies are back, which could mean more script writing for those cute movies we like to watch. I get tired of ‘dark’. No surprise about podcasts. Without cable my world is all about podcasts. I recently listened to the classic Wuthering Heights read on my kindle, as I was busy with another activity. I accomplished my goal that day and listened to 9 chapters. I haven’t done that in ages and will seriously look at more audible books in the future. Perhaps even figure out how to read my novel. Got to think about that some. As for reading, I read a lot (for me) last year, and with few exceptions, I always read from start to finish. I also made it a policy to post my comments/reviews on GoodReads. The star system really bugs me though. Some books I may not like because I wasn’t in the mood to read at the time. It doesn’t mean the book isn’t worth reading, so I try to say something positive about all. I hope the reading statistics change. We are a wiser, kinder people when we read. I truly believe this. We need to promote reading more on social media. Thanks for posting!
Fantastic article Laurie. I think your predictions may not be far off at all. Oh, and had a good chuckle at tRump and 2020. Looking forward to breathing again instead of life on the edge. 🙂 Right Anne? Lol 🙂
Thanks, everyone, for your comments. Let’s hope that 2019 is a lot better than 2018…amiright? Happy New Year! Stay safe, stay warm & dry, and write, write, write, read, read, read. Now it’s back to work for me.
Laurie–Many, many thanks for visiting us and sharing your fascinating predictions. Have a spectacular 2019!
“We Need Diverse Books.” This should also include disability and chronic illness in characters – which is as much part of life as almost any other. Preferably without the character either dying or tidying her/himself away for the convenience of the rest of us.
I’ve published the first book in a mainstream trilogy with such a character; marketing is very hard. One whiff of that particular subtheme, and many people back away. Especially when it’s deliberately NOT a tearjerker.
But it lets you see what some of the consequences of living such a life are – and how society constrains the ‘allowable’ choices.
Alicia–I think a well-written book with any kind of protagonist can succeed if it’s marketed to the right audience. Best of luck with your work!
Marketing is the hard part. There are known paths for advertising for indies who write genre fiction, but the path for literary and mainstream fiction is less well-trod, and the competition from traditional publishing fierce.
I’ll figure it out eventually – and meanwhile the reviews have been amazing – but trying the wrong marketing has been a disaster.
I’m hearing that from so many indies right now, Alicia. They spend big bux and get nowhere. It’s hard to find out how to reach your niche. But people who do can, do well. Some find they do better marketing in person and speaking to groups, but for people like me who have mobility issues, that can be pretty tough. Sometimes a blog that addresses the issue with nonfiction can boost sales of the fiction. But I know it’s not easy.
I have huge mobility issues – I didn’t know you did, too. I’m so sorry. Between that and the ME/CFS robbing me of energy, I have a short range.
I’m hoping for book club access – there are a lot of readers here, and many long-established clubs, and I might be able to do local events.
It frustrates me because one of my main characters is also disabled, and the subtext of that is designed to help readers acquire more empathy for those whose lives are harder.
I haven’t wanted to push that, but I may need to. It is not the most important part of the story, by far, but it is a factor.
I’m toying with the idea of asking a few select indies whether they want to support a disabled writer, and whether they might support me. They’d have to read and like my fiction, of course, but it might be one way.
Best wishes in 2019 – for you and your writing.
Good plan. Another way to reach your target audience is to guest blog for bloggers who talk about the disease and network with each other. Even a small blog can sometimes open up a big market. I’ll be talking about guest blogging later this month..
great article Anne and I suspect you are spot on – for one, the Big A will not accept any loss of profits fro whatever reason, even it the market is so bearish it collapses. Living in Spain and only speaking English, local events are out for obvious reasons plus many services offered by the Big a eg ACX. By chance the other day I discovered how to listen to my ebooks using either Alexis or my smart phone. If we can all do this why should we go the audio route? Does anyone else listen to ebooks for the cost of the book alone (much cheaper than the audio versions) – and do listeners worry about all the added SFX produced by programmes like Audacity?
Lucinda–I didn’t know that Alexa provides audiobooks. Are they read by a robot that sounds like Alexa? I didn’t know that. I like audiobooks read by real actors, but they are more expensive, that’s for sure. I’m not familiar with Audacity, either, I’m afraid. Maybe Laurie will know. But she’s a literary agent, not an audio tech person. . .
I do know a few authors writing drabbles or other short content for reading on phones while waiting somewhere. I never understood why e-books and hard copy should be exclusive. I read both and all my books are available in both! Working on adding audiobook to that too.
Jaq–Short fiction has been popular for reading on phones for a while. And a lot of people read books on them too. I personally prefer reading on my Kindle, because it’s much easier on the eyes, but I guess Kindles are considered “old school” these days. If you’re an indie, it’s best to have your work available in ebook, pbook and audiobook if you can afford it.
Afford it? If you’ve paid for cover art and editing, they copy across formats and audiobooks can be done on profit share. So making all formats available doesn’t have to cost anything extra. Placing paperbacks in shops or taking them to events on the other hand would take some investment.
Audiobooks are expensive, unless you go exclusive with ACX/Amazon and accept their limited distribution and microscopic royalties.