We’re honored this week to host literary agent Laurie McLean of the Fuse Literary Agency. If you’re looking for an agent, we have great news for you! Although Laurie is not accepting unsolicited submissions, she will accept queries from readers of this blog! Scroll down for more info in Laurie’s bio. And now, here’s Laurie!… Anne
Agent Laurie McLean, Founding Partner of Fuse Literary, Looks into Her Crystal Ball
Thanks, Anne, for once again sharing your audience with me for my annual predictions of the year ahead in publishing. From the title of this post, you can tell I’m at odds with the notion that the digital publishing revolution is now over, ebooks are slipping in popularity, print is once again king of the world, indie bookstores are back on a steady footing, and adult coloring books are saving the world.
Well, except for that last one. I agree with traditional publishing that adult coloring books are propping up print book sales big time. But as far as the other “facts” go, I say hogwash.
That’s a lot to digest, so let me bullet point these 13 predictions for ease of digestion…and hopefully inspiration…for 2016!
1) Ebook sales are NOT stagnating.
I’ve always been a firm believer that you can make numbers and statistics dance to any beat you play and I believe the Big Five are skewing these numbers with their newly won agency pricing models.
Last year I saw several of my clients’ debut novels come out with an ebook price that was higher than the print book price. Check it out on Amazon. I’m not kidding. That’s part of the “decline” scenario, because honestly who would not buy a hardcover print book if it was cheaper than a digital book. Most people would make that choice.
And because of this, ebook sales from traditional publishers large and small seem to be declining.
Once you add Amazon ebook sales into the calculation, however, it all falls apart. Unfortunately that is not what most reports have done. They only concentrated on traditional retail sales numbers from their usual cast of publishers. So you’re getting fed false numbers. Ebooks are healthy and should continue to be healthy throughout 2016 and beyond. They are here to stay.
Once ebook pricing stabilizes, because while I’m sure the traditional booksellers and publishers are trying to help their physical retail partners (aka bookstores) by increasing print sales, they will see that they went too far and the smart ones will adjust. At least that is my opinion.
2) Physical bookstore sales will continue to decline.
Amazon already sells the vast majority of print and digital books. They are a healthy company. Heck, they signed up 3 million new Prime members at $99 a pop during the third week of December alone!
So I’m betting that they will continue to discount books, support indie authors through KDP Select and Kindle Unlimited, and the local bookstores and chains will simply not be able to keep up.
I’ll talk about Google and Apple as possible white knights a bit later, but for now I’m predicting that Amazon is just going to keep growing and taking market share from bookstores in 2016.
3) Kindle Unlimited will continue to become a larger part of KDP Select author revenues.
Amazon is always fine-tuning the customer experience. It’s their obsession. And with KDP, authors are their customers too. When Kindle Unlimited disproportionately rewarded short-story-size books, causing a proliferation of 14 page erotic fiction and episodic novels where 14 books should really be counted as one, Amazon adjusted things.
Now they pay per page read and this upset a lot of writers who were trying to game the system. But my hybrid client-authors have seen a steady increase over time in their Kindle Unlimited subscription revenue and I believe this is going to keep growing.
4) Library lending of ebooks will increase.
I have several author-clients who are librarians as well, and they unanimously inform me that the ebook lending side of the library business is booming. As indie authors recognize this missing link in their distribution plans, more libraries will flock to them as sources of inexpensive books (especially when it is so expensive to buy those bestsellers in print and ebook formats).
Sure, Smashwords, Overdrive and others allow libraries access to indie published ebooks, but it is a cumbersome system. Libraries and publishers will eventually figure out the user interface and back office processes, and once they do library ebook lending will accelerate in popularity. Especially for all those lucky readers who received a $49 Kindle Fire for the holidays!
5) Midlist authors will be pushed to self-publish.
This is not really a prediction since it’s been going on for years now. But if you’re a debut author it’s worth noting that if your debut trilogy or series or even a stand-alone book does not reach a high altitude in sales within the first 6 months (and I’m being generous), you’re probably going to see your advances dwindle, your future contracted books put out in digital only, or canceled altogether, and you had better be building your author platform with social media and some self-published material to be ready for the inevitable slide.
I’m not being an alarmist. I’m just trying to get you prepared in case it happens, as it is happening more often these days and I believe that trend will continue.
6) The Hollywood Blockbuster mentality will continue with the Big Five.
Just like the Hollywood “tent pole” blockbuster, the bestseller is still the Holy Grail for traditional publishing.
They’re willing to roll the dice on debut authors because they might become bestselling authors, but generally all their marketing dollars go to support their established bestselling books and authors.
That’s the way it’s been in the past, and it has become more and more prevalent now. That’s where all the big advance money goes. That’s where all the innovative social media marketing and book tour money goes. Hey, it works for Hollywood, it stands to reason it’s a good model for New York publishing too. Indie books, like indie movies, will fill the void.
Okay. Those are the easy ones. I could predict those without a crystal ball. But let’s have some fun and I’ll share what might happen in publishing in 2016. These are riskier predictions, but they might come to pass.
7) Apple’s iBookstore will make a run for market share against Amazon.
I’m not sure about this one, but if anyone can take aim at reducing Amazon’s market share in books, it would be either Apple or Google.
Google Play is not getting any traction, so I don’t see Google busting through. But Apple got serious with its operating system finally and included iBooks as a stand alone app instead of making the reader jump through hoops on iTunes (where half of them probably bought the new Adele song instead!)
If Apple could just swallow their ginormous pride for one second and make an Android app for iBooks, imagine what could happen. Apple…are you listening?
8) Geographic boundaries for translated ebooks will disappear.
This is already a thought in Amazon’s mind with English-language books. You can select a myriad of countries where your ebook can be sold through Amazon France or Germany or India or Brazil, etc. Now if they can only figure out how to do that with translated ebooks, we’re in for a revolution of another sort.
Maybe some enterprising company (Apple? Google? Amazon?) will create a peer-to-peer ADX type of exchange for translations, where authors can pair up with translator talent and get those books distributed in other languages themselves.
Audiobooks too. Why not? That would certainly shake up contracts from the Big Five. Oh, man. Can’t wait. More upheaval is good for everybody.
9) More “lost” novels will resurface.
We saw how wildly popular Go Set a Watchman from Harper Lee was last year…and it was basically a rougher draft of To Kill a Mockingbird!
A lot of descendants of famous authors are going to be rooting through attics, storage lockers and safe deposit boxes, looking for their ancestors’ long lost, unfinished works. Could be good. Probably not. But it will be lucrative.
10) There will be a breakout novel created specifically for the mobile environment.
I have long believed that a shorter, episodic story, filled with cliffhangers, is perfect for the millennial generation of readers. You can read a quick bit while waiting in line for your latte or Frappuccino at Starbucks. Or when you’re on the light rail to work. Or if you’re bored with your lunch companions.
I know of one company, Tapas Media, that will launch this spring, that is combining a sexy gaming interface with what they’re calling “bite-size” content. For authors this might mean you want to start imagining what a story could look like if it were optimized for this new environment. Charles Dickens would be pleased!
11) Adult coloring books will expand.
These things were such a huge success, and as I mentioned previously, single-handedly boosting print book publishing last year, that publishers will expand them in number as well as branch out to other formerly youthful books.
One of our authors, Helen Wrath, just debuted Drawing with a Vengeance, which is Cards Against Humanity with doodles. I expect there to be a huge variety of doodling, coloring, structure-building and other relaxation books for adults. I hope so anyway. I’m kind of tired of crayons and mandalas.
12) Traditional ebook royalties will escalate.
This is a fight that agents have been waging since 2008. Today’s standard 25% royalty rate for ebooks is simply too low. Publisher overhead had already been figured into the original 6%-12.5% royalty rates for print books eons ago.
So for a publisher to take 75% of the revenues from ebooks with very little if any additional overhead is unfair. In fact, ebooks have no printing/binding/distribution costs, and near zero return expenses, plus the marketing dollars they spend are format agnostic, so they are even more profitable to publishers. I am going to go out on a limb and say that in 2016 we’ll see royalties for ebooks begin to escalate commensurate with increases in sales. It might not get to the totally fair 50-50 split that agents have been screaming for, but even 40% would make my day.
13) Indie authors will continue to take market share from traditionally published authors.
If you’re a fan of Hugh Howey and Data Guy and their Author Earnings report (and I am!), you already know that the statistics being handed to us by publishers and traditional organizations like Pew, BookScan, and BISG are way skewed towards the old publishing paradigms.
Indie authors ARE grabbing market share from traditionally published authors and I believe that trend will continue. In fact I think there is a schism in the reading marketplace developing between those readers who will not blink an eye spending $35 for a hardcover first edition book from their favorite author and those who regularly balk at paying more than 99 cents for an indie author ebook—or even a multi-author anthology!
This is especially true in genres like romance, science fiction, mysteries, fantasy, thrillers and graphic novels/comics. The traditional book market is shrinking while the indie market is growing. It’s not difficult to see where the growth is coming from Indie books are eating away at big book publishers. This should become indisputably obvious this year.
But also remember…books and reading are only one facet of the multi-billion dollar entertainment industry. It will be interesting to see how the publishing industry continues to evolve as it not only fights for profitability against books published outside of its purview, but also against movies, videogames, network television, streaming shows, and all the other entertainment items literally at consumer fingertips.
***
So there you have it. My 13 predictions for the coming year? I’d love to hear your predictions for anything I’ve missed. Or if you agree or disagree with anything I’ve presented. I have an agent’s viewpoint, which is pretty much in the eye of the storm at all times. But I welcome viewpoints from authors, publishers, pundits and anyone who loves books as much as I do!
by Laurie McLean (@AgentSavant), founding partner, Fuse Literary Agency
January 10, 2016
Laurie McLean spent 20 years as the CEO of a marketing agency and 8 years as an agent/senior 
agent at Larsen Pomada Literary Agents before co-founding Fuse Literary in 2013. At Fuse Lit Laurie specializes in adult genre fiction plus middle-grade and young adult children’s books.
Prior to founding Fuse Lit, Laurie was the Dean of San Francisco Writers University and is still on the management team of the San Francisco Writers Conference. Laurie also co-founded two ePublishing companies: JoyrideBooks.com for romance, and Ambush Books for tween and teen books. In 2015 Ambush Books was acquired by Short Fuse Publishing.
She’s officially closed to new submissions, but for readers of this blog, she’ll take queries in the areas she represents if you put “Anne R. Allen” in the subject line. Make sure your query contains the first 10 pages of your complete/polished manuscript plus a 1-2 page synopsis (cut and pasted into the body of your email…no attachments please). Send your query to querylaurie@fuseliterary.com.
Find out more at FuseLiterary.com and AgentSavant.com, follow the agency on Twitter @FuseLiterary and Laurie @AgentSavant.
BOOK OF THE WEEK
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OPPORTUNITY ALERTS
If you have a win or place work with a publisher or contest listed here, let us spread the word! Send Anne an email and we’ll give you kudos on the blog.
Platypus Press. A new UK small press is looking for literary novels and poetry collections. No agent required. Though your manuscript must be complete, the first three chapters of a novel will suffice when submitting. It must be previously unpublished, but work posted on a blog or personal website is acceptable. Accepts simultaneous submissions.
Sequestrum Reprint Awards. Finally a contest that actually wants previously published short stories and creative nonfiction! Entry fee $15. Prize is $200 and publication in the Fall-Winter issue of Sequestrum. The runner-up will receive $25 and publication. Finalists listed on the site. Deadline April 30th, 2016.
WERGLE FLOMP HUMOR POETRY CONTEST NO ENTRY FEE. Limit one poem with a maximum of 250 lines. First Prize: $1,000. Second Prize: $250. Honorable Mentions: 10 awards of $100 each. Top 12 entries published online. Deadline April 1, 2016.
The Poisoned Pencil: New YA publisher open to submissions! The well-known mystery publisher The Poisoned Pen now has a YA imprint. They accept unagented manuscripts and offer an advance of $1000. Submit through their website submissions manager. Response time is 4-6 weeks.
World Weaver Press: A small press open to submissions for the month of February 2016. They’re looking for sci-fi, paranormal and fantasy fiction: novels, novellas, serialized fiction, anthology proposals, and single author story collections. No zombies.
PSYCHOPOMP MAGAZINE SHORT FICTION AWARD $15 ENTRY FEE. Up to 6000 words. They’re looking for edgy stuff that “pushes the boundaries of genre or form.” First Place Award: $500 and issue publication. All finalists will be considered for publication. Deadline January 31, 2016.
Open call for the Independent Women Anthology: short stories (flash fiction included), poetry, essays, artwork, or any other woman and/or feminist-centered creative work. 10,000 word max. All genres but explicit erotica. $100 per short story, $50 for flash, poetry, and photography/artwork. All profits will be donated to the Pixel Project Charity to end Violence Against Women. Deadline January 31, 2016 with a goal of publication on International Women’s Day, March 8, 2016.
Laurie, I applaud your courage in making so many, and such strong predictions. Most of it would be fine with me! I do think I’m more pessimistic about big-pub e-book pricing (and royalties) than you are. They started out with these prices in part to subsidize paper, and it’s been going on so long I can’t see any evidence why it would change. The thing is, by keeping such a gap between pricing for Big Pub and indies, they create an image of quality versus trash. And changing that will not be an “adjustment” or a “trim”- e-book pricing from Big Pub would have to undergo, um, a revolution. And as long as people buy into the idea that it must be good because it’s expensive, I believe that’s where it will stay. The high e-book price might drive people to paper, but that’s still better for them because of how much they have to invest.
Will–Laurie is presenting at a Writers Conference today and she’s taking pitches right now, but she’ll stop by this evening to respond to comments..
I guess there will always be people who think that “expensive” means good. I love giving people like that glasses of $4 wine when they claim they can only drink the high-priced stuff. I tell them it’s very rare and expensive, of course. 🙂 I know I’ll buy a book in paper if the ebook is over $5. I like both reading experiences, so it’s just a matter of value to me.
Five bucks is about my limit for an e-book too. If I’m going to pay more than that, I want a good old paper book in my hands. Though fact is, I don’t do a whole lot of electronic reading, and hardly any fiction.
I think I prefer reading fiction in paper and nonfic on the Kindle. Although I’m getting more and more dependent on my Kindle. It’s so great for waiting at the doctor’s office or standing in line. I’ve always got a book with me. But I won’t spend more for an ebook than for paper, ever.
The reason I’m hopeful and positive is that these huge multinational corporations run on bottom line profits, and since they’ve seen such a big drop off in ebook profitability due to dramatically fewer sales, I think they’ll be experimenting with pricing models and sales to fine tune their strategies moving forward. At least I hope so.
Excellent! Thanks, Anne & Laurie! Very encouraging and informative!
Any results or opinions regarding the Amazon/Kindle “Matchbook” marketing, in which authors can sign up to agree to lower the price of our ebooks (we specify how much; can even make it free) in order to tempt a dual purchase of both the paper/hardcover WITH the ebook?
Anyone getting paper/hardcover sales from that?
Best to you all,
Sally Ember
Sally–Laurie can tell you how she feels about it, but personally, I find that selling paper is tough no matter what. I also find that people don’t buy the audiobook to go with a sale-priced ebook, even though the bundled price is a real bargain. I guess the audience is different for audiobooks and ebooks.
Just an observation on audio books: all my under-25 relatives & friends kids are beginning to get loud about audio books. Mom gets/reads the ebook copy — kids grab the audio book and zone out. I’ve even seen younger-somethings when I’m out & about with earbuds that are rockin’ out to an audio book.
When audiobooks switched from 20+ CDs per book to downloadable mp3 files for much less money, the audiobook market exploded. So, yes, audiobooks are definitely growing exponentially. And since Amazon owns both Brilliance (CDs) and Audible (mp3s), I would expect no less.
I have not seen too much evidence that this is working. Most ebook readers only want the print version of a book if it’s going to be read over and over and they want it on their keeper shelves. That is a small percentage of ebooks. I’ll be on the lookout for more information on Matchbook, but so far, I can’t see it gaining much traction. They are also trying this with audiobooks and are selling more of those combos.
I’d heard the decline in eBook sales was bunk and for that very reason. The big five might be seeing a decline but that the other end, they are seeing an increase.
I hope Apple does make some big changes and makes a run at Amazon. They have the strongest and most stable platform and the weight to do it. While a PC guy when it comes to computers, I am an iTunes junkie all the way, and I get my music and my books from them first.
And I’ve never understood the price of eBooks from the bigger publishers. I refuse to pay over ten bucks for an eBook. My small publisher has set my eBook prices at $4.99 and 5.99, lowering that slowly over time. That makes more sense to me.
Alex–I’m with you. Ebooks over $5 usually stop me. I hope Apple works on becoming more competitive. Healthy competition is good for everybody!
I hope Apple finally sees the light about the upside of ebooks and fulfills the promise of the iBookstore, but it’s 50/50 whether that happens soon, later, or at all. And see my previous comment about the Big Five seeing their bottom lines decline with high-priced ebooks and making an adjustment. The book publishing industry does not make high profits, compared to some of the other industries these huge multinational corporations include (movies, television, satellite, cable, theme parks, etc.) So if their annual P&L show more L than P, their corporate overlords will not be happy with their decisions to force ebook pricing so high.
Hi Laurie & Anne,
Fascinating. I applaud both of you, who – unlike me – have your fingers are on the pulse of the publishing industry. And thanks for the positive energy.
Charlie–Laurie does more than I do. I’m surprised (and pleased) to read some of her predictions.
I spend a lot of my time following these leading-edge developments. I find it all fascinating.
Excellent post, thank you! I’m with both an extremely traditional publisher, and a more ebook oriented publisher that does POD. With the first, I get 25% royalty on ebooks. With the second, I get 50%. I suspected the latest press on the decline of ebooks was overstated, from what I’ve been seeing on my own royalty front.
Noting all your predictions. Thanks for them!
Melodie–That 50% is why a lot of authors are going to small presses. The big guys take too much, IMO.
Good for you, Melodie! You should also add self-publishing to your bag of tricks. It adds balance to your publishing career no matter how the market develops!
This is truly encouraging. Thanks, Anne.
Patricia–I found it encouraging, too!
All on target. The truth is hard for some people to swallow, but to successfully run a business as an author, we have to live in the truth.
Bob–Thanks for stopping by! I’m a big fan of your blog. You keep our feet on the ground. 🙂
Spoken like a best-selling author, hybrid author, publisher, and pioneer.
Wonderful and very encouraging. I really needed this cheering up in so many ways today. Thank you, Laurie, for such an informative and positive post. Paul
Paul–I was so sorry to read on FB about your friend’s death. I’m glad Laurie’s post could bring a little cheer into a sad day.
Thanks so much, Anne. Do Appreciate.
You are so welcome.
Longterm prediction, Many decades after I have turned back into carbon, books will become letters written, spoken, or videoed back and forth. As it stands in 2016, anyone with a computer, even a phone-sized one, can become an author by first attaching that title to his or her name, next penning an elongated term paper, and finally putting it up for sale. People have always wanted to tell each other stories. True enough that more and more folks consider ninety-nine cents, or less, is the only fair price. Authors now give away their work in order to instigate sales (what a shame). Maybe fifty years from now all will be free (except for the cost of a computer implant).
Anthony–That’s fascinating. And you may be absolutely right. Everybody who has a computer seems to dream of being an author. And these days, everybody has a computer/smart phone. So we may all be writing for an audience of one or two (for free, alas.)
Artists have always created art, regardless of whether they were paid, housed by a patron/muse, toiled in obscurity, or whatnot. If you have to write, write. If you can do anything else, don’t write. Most writers I know have no choice. They must write regardless of what’s happening in the market or industry. Interesting predictions!
Intriguing insights, Laurie. I was standing in line at Whole Foods yesterday, and noticed several adult coloring books in the magazine “impulse buy” racks next to check-out. That tells you something!
Although I don’t think we’ll see it in 2016, I do believe boutique bookstores will eventually make a comeback. At some point, the print book will become a high-end gift for collectors. Great piece!
Debra–Those coloring books sure are taking off. I think indie bookstores are making a comeback. They may not make the majority of their income from book sales, but they attract “book people”. We have a lovely indie store in our little town that is thriving.
Print is great for coloring books, sketch books, coffee table books, collectibles, and for the diminishing market of techno-phobes. In 50 years we’ll all be reading through mind-jacks connected to the uber-cloud. Can’t wait for my brain-jack to be installed! ?
What a bounty of info! Thanks for sharing, Laurie, especially the out-on-a-limb wonderings.
I was also wondering something about this and future years, as far as graphic novels go…
I’ve done several edits of graphic novels over the past 2 years and each has had music and video partners. Often those additions are also original material created by the author. Plus, the books are usually supported by continuing videos that involve extensions or aberrations of the characters and their continuing adventures.
Have you — or has anyone else — seen any upswing in graphic novels and their ‘pals’?
Thanks Anne and Ruth for once again bringing a wonderful voice of experience to us.
Maria–I hope Laurie has some insight into the graphic novel market. It’s outside of my experience, but I can imagine the market is increasing.
Graphic novels are experiencing a true renaissance right now…and I hope it continues. And yes, multi-media accompaniments are also starting to create a buzz. I just sold a series to Simon Pulse for a young recording artist and YouTube star, Simon Curtis, whose inspiration for the books was music he wrote. Search his name on the web and read up on this fascinating intersection of disparate art forms. I’m really bullish on this co-mingling of formats and art and am committed to helping it grow.
Thanks, Laurie — I’m glad to hear of your commitment and interest. I was tremendously excited to see author/artist/musicians taking advantage of the multiple venues now available to forge multiple talents. Will be checking out Simon’s material – what great news!
Hi Anne, and Laurie, thank you for taking the time to provide the 2016 predictions for publishing. I am so happy to see adult coloring books are still going to be popular as I plan on publishing one or more this year. And, Lauire, It’s too bad you don’t accept queries for coloring books. Thanks, Anne for another fabulous post. 🙂
Tracy–I’m in awe of people who can draw as well as tell stories. I don’t think there’s a market for stick-figure coloring books. That’s all I’d be able to do. 🙂
Stick figures may be the next hot item, Anne. 🙂
My partner, Gordon Warnock, just sold Helen Wrath’s Draw With a Vengeance, with doodles instead of coloring outlines. He also handles coloring books, graphic novels, comics, etc. Reach out to him at querygordon@fuseliterary.com.
Lauria, thank you so much for taking the time to respond, and for providing Gordon’s info. Time to get to work on this. 🙂
Brilliant – I love the riskier predictions! I’d like to add that #10, the break-out novel for the mobile environment is already on its way: it’s Julian Fellowes “Belgravia” that will be issued this spring only through an app. I bet it will be a HUGE success (helped along of course by the fact that Fellowes is the guy who wrote the immensely successful TV series Downton Abbey…)
Claude–I just read about Julian Fellowes new project. It looks so exciting!
I heard about that, but didn’t know it was app-only. I thought it was first sold to a British publisher, then they sold it to a US publisher. Hmmm. I’ll have to look into the app-only part. Didn’t hear about that.
I keep saying that mobile-optimized smartphone books are going to take off astronomically once a bestseller is available only for that format, not print or .mobi or .epub. Maybe you’re right and Julian will once again blow our minds! I wonder, however, if Downton Abbey fans will embrace an ebook app. It’s a fun mental image anyway…
A wonderful post! Thank you for sharing Laurie with us! I’ve taken classes from her at the Cuesta Central Coast Writers Conference and she is a breath of fresh air in a baffling and intimidating marketplace!
Sharyl–Hi! *waves* Great to see you here! Laurie’s in-person courses are even more inspiring than her writing. I love her positive take on things!
Such a kind thing to say. Thank you very much. *blushes*
Apple simply doesn’t care enough about iBooks to give Amazon a run for its money. And why should Apple care? eBooks are a tiny fraction of the company’s overall revenues and is dependent on a backward-looking industry.
Speaking of the industry, six major publishers now have agency deals. That’s what, half of the market locked down with price controls? There’s not a whole lot left to fight over.
And don’t forget, Apple’s never cared to compete in ebooks. That’s why they were so happy to go agency six years ago.
But aside from number seven, spot on.
We’ll see. Apple and Google are the only companies big enough to try to control Amazon’s unregulated market grab. Seriously. If I was the iBookstore manager at Apple, I’d spend half my time convincing my bosses that iBooks has to grow dramatically to bother Amazon and take some of their market share. I do see it happening in the deals Apple makes with some authors to highlight their books and stimulate sales. That’s why I think it’s a possibility. I guess time will tell which one of us is right!
Until Apple stops treating iBooks as a way to drive people to buy Apple hardware, they have no chance of competing with Amazon.
Right now, you can’t even upload a book to iBooks to sell unless you do it from a Mac.
As long as people can’t read their iBooks on their PCs or Android devices, they have no chance of being serious competition for Amazon.
They are still going to have problems after they loosen their control, because of the network effects and the Kindle e-readers (e-readers may not be used by the majority of readers, but they are great for young readers that you don’t want to be distracted by other things, and a lot of the heaviest readers, including me, swear by them)
David–I agree that Apple needs to stop its clique-ish ways. I love my Kindle, which means Apple doesn’t want me as a customer. That’s more than a little silly.
At least I see some signs that they recognize the problem/opportunity. For seven years they haven’t even cared about iBooks.
Great predictions. I’m still on the fence about iBooks. There’s money to be made there, but it’s not accessible as Amazon, and I don’t see that changing. That alone will keep iBooks as a second and MUCH smaller player in the ebook world.
I’m also not sure about the breakout mobile novel. I think this type of micro-publishing will increase in popularity, but I see them as a different animal. Similar, but very different. Like blogging vs. novels vs. web comics. All of these can tell stories, but they might not have the same audience. And even if they do, I’m not sure they aren’t complimentary.
Gina–I make good sales at iTunes, but I have to admit that as a customer, I prefer Amazon.
I’m intrigued by your suggestion that the mobile novel may be a different art form from the traditional novel. Blogs didn’t exist before the technology and they are quite different from magazines and essays. So the mobile novel may be something that has never existed before. Sounds exciting!
That’s why I love wild predictions. You never know which ones are going to come true!
I have noticed a trend of increased use in audio books, and I tried it myself recently. Without the audiobook version i don’t think I would have been able to get through the Picture of Dorian Gray.
Jesse–I love audiobooks! They’re so perfect for long trips. Also for doing housework. 🙂
Time after time, I think you’re right on the money, Laurie.
It’ll be very interesting to see what happens with translation, and what new models develop. Like you, I’m a big fan of the number crunching that goes on at Author Earnings, and recent figures over there suggest there’s room for a lot of growth in non-English-language ebook markets.
I’m an Australian author with a number of books traditionally published in the UK and US (with St Martins’ Press and Houghton Mifflin) and in translation, as well as indie ebooks, and I’ve recently signed some titles to Yeeyan for the Chinese market. Their model involves sourcing significant amounts of content from other markets, then crowd-sourcing Chinese translations from their pool of translators (with a handful of high-level translators reading each work as quality control). The author, translator and Yeeyan each take an agreed percentage of sales revenue. The books are e-published and promoted, with print rights of successful titles on-sold to major Chinese print publishers.
Their model is still evolving, but some of that sounds a bit like what you’re talking about. It seems to me to be a smart way of using technology and resources to give a lot of books a chance in a new market. Presumably many won’t get traction, but at least they’re in the game, and there’s a plan to capitalise on the success of any that break through.
I’ve signed up a couple of novels, as well as a novella series.
Nick–Sounds as if you’ve hit on some good ways to tap into the translation market. I’m experimenting with Babelcube for some Spanish translations of my mysteries.
I’ve heard of Babelcube but haven’t used it. I’ll be interested to hear how it works for you. Spanish is potentially such a big market. Good luck with it.
Interesting predictions, and I think one of the most important is the trend to reading with a smartphone. I started doing this three years ago after I had stopped reading books almost totally (a poor confession for a part-time publisher), but started again when the library started offering downloadable books. I totally think this trend will be a major influence over the next decade, and I suspect it will absolutely change the way we think of writing fiction. The Victorians (not just Dickens) “got” serial novels, and I’m betting we will also see a trend back to pulp-length novels.
Kendall–Mark Williams, who guests for us quite often, would agree with you. He writes about the global market for ebooks and he says that in places like West Africa, where he lives, phones are opening up markets that never existed before. People who never had computers or landlines now have smartphones. They use them for reading as well as everything else.
The serialized novel really got big when Amazon first introduced KU. Now that they’re paying by page count not title downloaded, some of the sillier serializations have faded (some authors were simply publishing chapters as “books”.) But the taste for good serials hasn’t faded. It’s like binge-watching TV episodes. Serials are addictive.
Thank you Laurie for your predictions. Very interesting and I couldn’t agree more with most of them. The only one I have a problem with is number 12 -Traditional ebook royalties will escalate. When I see this I can only imagine (and I may be wrong) but that you are referring to the Big 5. Since they price their ebooks astronomically high, I don’t see more people buying their ebooks.
Even my husband complained the other day wondering why his ebook was $12.99. You are right there is almost no cost to the publishers to produce an ebook and the abysmal royalty they give out is ridiculous. I would hope they would wise up and keep their price points down to below $5. I am sure they would make much more profit if their did that, sell many more ebooks. If they do lower the price for ebooks then I could see your prediction coming true, but if not I think it will just stay how it is now.
Elizabeth–As an agent, Laurie is fighting hard for those royalties to go up. Most agents are. It may be wishful thinking, but agents can be pretty fierce. My money is on them. 🙂
With respect to these points:
Kindle Unlimited will continue to become a larger part of KDP Select author revenues.
&
Library lending of ebooks will increase.
I am curious, what is your take on the movement on the Internet of LEGAL SHARING of purchased ebooks?
I am currently exploring this one site:
SHELFmybooks[dot]com
Now, as far as the law goes, it seems to be a normal practice even in North America.
Are the new authors in for a ‘rude awakening’ when the value of the published word cannot be fully remunerated?
Cheers!
Joe
Joe–I don’t think Laurie is still subscribed to comments on this post from three months ago.
Personally, I see nothing wrong with legal sharing. Someone has bought the book and is sharing it–just like a public library. Free is how stuff gets visible these days, and lots of us spend tons of money to outfits like BookBub so we can give away lots of freebies.
Legal sharing is no more a threat to authors than used bookstores (authors have never been paid when a book is sold in a used bookstore.) Lots of things to worry about for authors these days, but book sharing isn’t one of them.