Agent Laurie McLean gives her publishing predictions for 2018.
By Laurie McLean, Partner, Fuse Literary
My crystal ball is telling me that not a lot in the publishing industry is going to change from 2017 to 2018.
I think publishing was mesmerized by Washington politics in 2017 and were slow to make any forward progress of any sort. Not a lot of new ideas. No new imprints that take advantage of the power of digital publishing and promotion. No exploration of sales innovations that come along with a cheap digital distribution system. Nada.
Unfortunately, I feel that a lot of traditional publishers believe that the ebook revolution has been settled (?), print books rule, and they can slow down on innovation and concentrate on making the new initiatives that they put in place since 2010 work.
That makes me shake my head.
I cut my teeth in the Silicon Valley and I’ve got to admit: I love change. But I love the change going on in publishing the most because for once authors and creators are becoming empowered and that’s good for everyone.
Sadly, any change I see on the horizon for publishing in 2018 is incremental and not necessarily positive.
Let’s dive in to specifics.
RETAIL HELL: DISTRIBUTION IS GETTING MORE DIFFICULT
A few weeks ago, Book World announced that it was closing its 45 brick and mortar stores. Barnes and Noble’s stock slid 13.8% to a 52-week low because their 9-week holiday sales (in an otherwise brisk holiday market) were down 6.4%. So the company decreased its sales projections for 2018.
It’s also closing big stores and going smaller. Juxtapose this against Amazon’s exponential rise in sales for the same holiday period and you can see where this trend is heading in 2018.
If I made a bold prediction that B&N would slide into bankruptcy in 2018, many industry pundits would agree with me. The only spark of hope for getting your physical books placed in bookstores will occur at the indie bookstore level where wise handselling, community space, and personal interactions draw in loyal customers.
As retail brick and mortar stores across all industries face major challenges from online shopping, I can only see this trend deepening in 2018. Chain bookstores will continue to contract and indie bookstores will hold their ground or grow a tiny amount in the coming year.
LISTEN UP: AUDIOBOOKS ARE HUGELY POPULAR
Just as eBooks in 2008-2013 kept traditional publishing afloat, accounting for most of the profitability of publishers small and large, audiobook profitability has hit the stratosphere.
This is great for authors who have always wanted their publisher to create audiobooks of their work.
But here’s what’s happening behind the scenes.
There are two types of rights that an author can license to a publisher: primary and secondary (usually called subsidiary). It started out that print rights were primary and everything else was negotiable by an author or agent.
Then in 2010, ebooks slid over to primary rights, meaning a deal was non-negotiable if the publisher could not license at least ebook and print rights. In the latter half of 2017, publishers began classifying audiobook rights as primary rights. It was a subtle transformation.
This was not heralded. It began one Big Five publisher at a time. But by the end of 2017, all Big Five publishers demanded audiobook rights be part of the deal. Many medium and small publishers jumped on that bandwagon too.
AUDIBLE REACTS
Amazon did not take the Big Five shift lying down. Audible, the largest distributor of audiobooks and an audiobook producer itself, is a division of Amazon. To fight this trend, they started offering mega deals to their biggest authors (genre fiction authors made out like bandits) to pre-emptively license audio rights to Audible.
I personally sold a $100,000 and $230,000 deal for two of my client Brian D. Anderson’s fantasy trilogies last year. My usual audiobook deals were south of $25,000.
So, you can see the appeal. Brian is a hybrid author and indie-publishes most of his fantasy novels. But this way, he knew he could take the time to craft amazing stories because the true purpose of an advance, to give the author enough money so he or she could concentrate on writing, not working another job to eat and keep a roof over his or her head, was being met by Audible’s advance.
I expect this gold rush of audiobook fame and fortune to continue to grow mightily in 2018 as more and more readers/listeners enjoy listening to audiobooks during commute time, workout time, relaxation time, etc.
I expect the tug-of-war between traditional publishers (many of whom have in-house recording studios now) and audiobook producers to escalate dramatically.
MASS MARKET MORASS: TRADITIONAL PUBLISHING STAGNATES
As I mentioned in my lead-in, I am perplexed and disappointed at the stagnation I experience daily in traditional publishing. The average response time to my manuscript submissions among editors last year was NINE MONTHS!
The decades prior to last year, the average response time was 2 months, so I’m hoping this was a temporary reaction to the horror of what is playing out in our political jungle, but I can’t count on it.
This is becoming the new norm. Publishers are:
- asking for more rights
- paying smaller advances
- taking forever to make a decision on buying a manuscript
- delivering less marketing and promotion
- expecting authors/agents to pick up the slack
I’m not sure how I’m going to keep convincing my hybrid authors to stay the course with traditional publishers when they are making more money self-publishing.
Traditional publishing needs to keep pushing innovation instead of stifling it.
They need to support debut authors further than their first series if it is not a blockbuster. They need to explore the ebook format for variations in length, audience, age group, extensions, and other media.
Why can’t we have a version of the ebook that is the same as the print book, but also a kid’s version, an easy reader version, an author’s cut (similar to a director’s cut on a DVD), a version filled with bonus extras. The possibilities are endless. But right now, we’re stuck on ebook v.1: ebook=print book.
PROBLEMS IN PARADISE: INDIE PUBLISHING IS GETTING TOUGHER
Is this the year that Amazon changes the 70/30 ratio of author royalties to Amazon royalties? Earlier in January a bunch of pundits reported that a new choice of 50% royalties popped up on some Kindle author dashboards.
Many are speculating that soon Amazon will be only offering their 70% royalty rate if a book is exclusive to Amazon via KDP Select. If you want to reach non-Kindle readers, you’d only get a 50% royalty rate. If this is true, I’ve been waiting for this shoe to drop for years. And indie authors should not be surprised. Amazon is a business, not a friend. Jeff Bezos just became the richest man in the world. He didn’t do that by being nice. So, indie publishing is getting tougher.
Another huge boulder in the indie publishing path is the way some unscrupulous authors are gaming the system in promoting and selling their books.
“Gaming the system” activities include:
- review purchasing
- bonus-stuffing
- title-keyword-stuffing
- click here inducements
- click farming
These scammers are steering unsuspecting buyers to buy poorly-written books because of a perceived bargain. But many are just collections of random words.
Kindle Unlimited (Amazon’s book subscription service) pays by the page read, not the book bought. Scammers are stuffing other books into the back of a book to make it more desirable or offering incentives to get the author to click a link to the back of the book.
Amazon counts all the skipped pages as if they were read. These predators get a bigger piece of the Kindle Unlimited pie each month, and authors who are playing by the intended rules get less.
As with any maturing market, indie publishing is going through growing pains. And indie authors need to be aware of this.
A NEW HOPE: INDIE PUBLISHING CONTINUES TO INNOVATE
But there is good in indie publishing as well, especially in innovative marketing techniques that readers are responding to.
This includes:
- Kindle Countdown deals
- BookBub CPM ads
- Perma-free books
- Book Funnel
- Facebook carousel ads
- iBook “First Free in a Series” promos
- Kobo promos
- Book Barbarian deals
- Cross promotions among authors
…and more to come, I’m sure.
Where traditional publishers are content with how the revolution has stalled (in their eyes), indie publishers and authors continue to create new ways to thrive.
So I see:
- More of the same from traditional publishing,
- Some hurdles to overcome for indie publishers,
- Audiobooks soaring, and bookstores contracting in 2018.
What do you see in your crystal balls for the coming year?
by Laurie McLean, @AgentSavant January 21, 2018
Here are Laurie’s predictions for 2017, 2016, and 2013.
What about it, scriveners? Do you agree with Laurie’s predictions? Do you have any predictions to add? Have you seen a spike in your audiobook sales? Are you buying more audiobooks?
***
Before founding the Fuse Literary Agency, Laurie McLean spent 20 years as the CEO of a publicity agency and 8 years as an agent and senior agent at Larsen Pomada Literary Agents in San Francisco. Laurie was also the Dean of San Francisco Writers University and on the management team of the San Francisco Writers Conference
Laurie has been writing professionally since high school–first as a journalist, then as a public relations agent, finally as a novelist. She earned a Bachelor’s Degree in Journalism from the State University of New York and a Master’s Degree at Syracuse University’s prestigious Newhouse School of Journalism.
Laurie’s clients include the New York Times and USA Today bestselling YA author Julie Kagawa, bestselling romance author Julianne Donaldson, award-winning steampunk and fantasy author Pip Ballantine, and the award-winning Linda Wisdom, who has had more than 100 romance novels published in her career.
For more on Laurie, check out her blog at agentsavant.com, follow her on Twitter @agentsavant, and visit her Facebook page at Facebook.com/laurie.mclean.
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That’s great that audio books are booming and giving authors more opportunities. Mine sold well in 2016 but it really slowed in 2017. My publisher said that was in part due to a rush of new audio titles last year.
Barnes and Noble going under will be of no surprise to me.
Great insights, another trend many of us are counting on and fostering is direct sales. Bookfunnel and Gumroad and Payhip are just a few of the methods indie authors are using to hand-sell to their biggest fans, keeping a larger cut of the profit and building up their own customer list. While 2018 may be the year of first adopters, I expect this trend to really take off when indies realize they can bundle books for readers as more and more the device matters not. Readers are reading on phones and tablets more than ereading dedicated devices, so file transfers are as simple as clicking on the file in your email.
Excellent information, Elizabeth. I’ll be watching this development with much enthusiasm. The author I mentioned earlier, Brian D. Anderson, just created a prequel short story for a new series and distributed it via Bookfunnel this weekend. I’m interested to see how that worked for him.
Thanks so much Laurie! Here I was, just about certain that agents were about as rare as the monsters of my fantasy world, but then Anne goes and digs up a real one just to show me!
And what a brilliant article. I was nodding like a bobble-head doll throughout, good parts as well as bad. It all makes so much sense now that you lay it out, and I think you’re likely to be spot-on in your predictions.
I particularly had no idea how much a-books have tightened up, and that’s going to be a deal killer for me (as if my other failings weren’t enough!). I simply insist on doing the a-book narration myself and it’s going to take forever and neither the Zon nor the Big 5 are going to want it, most likely. The only thing that could accelerate me is an old-style advance, which is gone the way of dragons, centaurs and agents… oh wait, have to revise that list.
I’m totally with you on flexibility for digital tales. How about a murder mystery that syncs up the a-book to the e-book, WITH stereo sound effects even if you’re reading to yourself, AND links to a 3-D printer: at all times, so you can “publish” the murder mansion and open it up to see where the maid you hadn’t read about for two chapters is lurking!
I love where you’re going with this, Will. I can’t wait to live in a world that lets people further explore the worlds their favorite authors create. I feel that the story is the central hub, but the book doesn’t have to be the only way they experience it. They may come at it from playing a videogame and desiring to expand the adventure. They may have their curiosity awakened and want to add something in the form of fan fiction or animation or illustration or even a musical. The 3-D printer angle is brilliant. Why not sculpt your favorite character or horror mansion! My point is that we are so limited right now with an ebook that mirrors the print book exactly. Opening creativity to include so many other art forms is obviously the next step in my mind.
Pretty accurate. Thanks.
Hi Laurie, your status review of how traditional publishers are lagging is depressing, but difficult to reconcile with the mega blockbuster hits recently produced by two of them (The Woman in the Window and The Wife Between Us) It seems when they feel they have a clear winner on their hands, the trad publishers will pull out all the stops. (Woman/window has been optioned as movie and sold in 30 countries and has been reviewed by almost every major newspaper in mainstream media.)
How can an indie author’s efforts compare to that sort of muscle? I just blogged about an indie author who is having some success, and who spoke at a lunch I attended last week. He had some great ideas, but I fear that without the sort of publicity or reviews that a traditional publisher can generate, it’ll be very much an uphill slog to stand out in a crowd, never mind make a living wage!!
The blockbuster mentality of traditional publishing hasn’t changed in a very long time. These books always get the lion’s share of attention.
The blockbuster/tent pole business model has long been central to book publishing. They need it to survive. So I don’t see this changing anytime soon. If it works for Hollywood…
Thanks for this info, Laurie! I’m with a large Canadian publisher and they are just now starting to experiment with audiobooks. One of mine is coming out soon. I’m not a person who reads them, so it’s really valuable to hear from you about how they are doing in the marketplace, and that we should be going there. Thank you!
I hope your audiobook sells well, Melodie. Remember to support that sales effort with some social media promotion!
Laurie — your predictions all ring true. It’s grand to have Anne connecting her readers with so many Movers, Shakers (& Predictors) in the publishing industry. Thanks.
Thanks for the insightful article, a very interesting read.
While Barnes & Noble stares oblivion in the face, its UK counterpart Waterstone’s has been there, seen the film, got the t-shirt and returned safely to profitability.
http://www.thenewpublishingstandard.com/waterstones-defies-the-bookstore-apocalypse-with-80-rise-in-profits-barnes-noble-looks-the-other-way/
And this in an Amazon stronghold with 90% share of with ebook market.
The demise of B&N does seem likely the way it is going, but it doesn’t have to happen.
I wish B&N would wake up and smell the coffee…in their cafes! But I don’t trust that their management will take the bold steps necessary. I mean it took them more than 10 years to change their direct publishing program for indies to Barnes & Noble Press. That should have happened when they actually had a chance to turn things around. Oh well. Time will tell.
I will be saddened if Barnes and Noble falls to Amazon. I worked for the company (at different stores) for many years before moving to a town without one. It was by-far my favorite company to work. I also know people who have worked at Amazon at different levels, warehouse and managerial. They all quit after a couple of months, saying that it is the worst company to ever work for.
I agree publishers need to give debuts more help. Known authors sale easily because of their name. They no longer need help with forthcoming sales.
Barnes and Noble used to be great. Now every time I go into one, there are only a handful of shoppers in the store. Plus, half the store is toys! Silly toys that you can also buy online cheaper. They need to create community, something indie bookstores are so good at doing. I don’t even hear the word “community” in any of their public statements.
I love bookstores, but they have been doing almost everything they can to drive me away. I want to read — READ — but I go into a bookstore and loud music blares from the speakers everywhere. In the B&N Cafe, the music is even louder, shouting lyrics at you while you try to out-shout the “background” music to place an order for coffee.
That coupled with customers who just have to be on their phones. Okay, I know the last one isn’t the bookstore’s fault, but why not provide a few chairs away from the books so those people won’t be interrupting everyone else?
I want to spend more time in the store. I want to enjoy a coffee and browse at length, but I get burned out from the noise. The upshot is that I leave the store angry, depressed, and all too willing to place another order online.
Ear plugs? Sound canceling headphones? I’m being a bit trite, but I definitely hear your complaint.
That might work, but really, what’s the point? It’s easier to stay home, drink less expensive coffee, and order books online (and maybe from a competitor). It’s one reason I love indie bookstores, but they are so rare in my area.
Before I read this article I said to myself – You better mention Audio Books – and you did.
My wife loves to read. She is a book-a-holic but her time does not allow her to sit still in her favorite chair and read. Audio books take care of that problem. She has a half hour commute every day. That gives her one hour to listen to her book. Sometimes more if work allows. There are tons of readers just like her and that makes me feel good when thinking of the survival of this business.
I am going to predict that there will always be a bright spot, a profitable niche, in book publishing that keeps it going and going like the Energizer bunny. Audiobooks is that bright spot right now. And who knows what innovations will spring from that development. I can’t wait to see where storytelling sprouts next!
I love the “author’s cut” idea!